I can’t say I agree with most of your details, but your second and last sentence are on point. This bubble (or bubble conglomeration that you describe) are not like any previous bubbles and in the end we are most certainly going to have a couple survivors still standing and take everything. The main thing I disagree with is that it will be the only thing that happens. We’re going to see a massive gutting of the financial markets and although datacenters are real things that get used, we don’t need this many specifically power hungry GPU/AI designed datacenters if the AI market pops. All these AI services are massively lossleading hoping to be one of the survivors. I think that once we get even close to the “pop” we’re going to see desperate price hikes and even the bigger companies are going to raise their pricing along with it. I suspect that many of those customers are going to have to admit that their AI plans aren’t living up to what they anticipated and will heavily curtain their usage once the prices jump.
I can’t say I agree with most of your details, but your second and last sentence are on point. This bubble (or bubble conglomeration that you describe) are not like any previous bubbles and in the end we are most certainly going to have a couple survivors still standing and take everything. The main thing I disagree with is that it will be the only thing that happens. We’re going to see a massive gutting of the financial markets and although datacenters are real things that get used, we don’t need this many specifically power hungry GPU/AI designed datacenters if the AI market pops. All these AI services are massively lossleading hoping to be one of the survivors. I think that once we get even close to the “pop” we’re going to see desperate price hikes and even the bigger companies are going to raise their pricing along with it. I suspect that many of those customers are going to have to admit that their AI plans aren’t living up to what they anticipated and will heavily curtain their usage once the prices jump.