3.5% participation is required for a population to reach a Tipping Point, and start a trend that leads to change. In America, that’s about 12.5 million people. The last No Kings protest was about 5.5 million people, this one was around 7 million, so we’re getting closer.
The thing to remember, because MAGA surely does, is that the 12.5 million doesn’t all have to be out marching. The No Kings protesters represent less than half of their actual numbers. In fact, they probably represent less than 20% of their total. A LOT of sympathizers stayed home, most of them, in fact.
MAGA understands that the protesters are only a small portion of the actual resistance, and they know they are surrounded. It’s time that the rest of the country recognizes that.
Seem to be a lot of people posting this so I’ll just repost what I wrote elsewhere :
The 3.5% theory is extremely questionable. The first paragraph of (the BBC) article is problematic if you know like 3 things about Philippine politics.
I’ve dug deeper into the data and it is very opinionated how it defines “success” and violence/nonviolence.
I’m not a pro-violence guy, i defend liberation struggles, but work to create educational/political/cultural revolution. Also the 3.5% mobilized population would be rad AF in USAmerica.
I haven’t read the whole book the study is based on, though I was working on it for a while. But IMO it misrepresents historical fact to make a nice-sounding abstraction, and I’m not sure how people will react to its failure, which would be based on a faulty premise.
We need to be more focused on what we will do with the power that will come from mobilizing like 12 million Americans rather than hoping some members of the political class notice and decide to fix things. The actual problem is that power is kept out of the hands of workers. The thought of building that power and giving it away would be a catastrophic blow to our movements.
The political system is empowered to fix problems, but not equipped. As far as I can tell, the only people who have ever created or fixed a goddamn thing in all of history have been workers.
No it doesn’t and stop posting this as gospel and read what the people who observed this actually say. For one there is one where 6% of the population was involved and it failed. Another protests are becoming less effective both peaceful and violent. Another other factors are also important besides the 3.5 number. Look up what these guys actually say instead of arriving some magical number.
I’d like to add. You also need them to actually be afraid. If they know a few protests is all it’s ever going to become, they won’t give half a shit. The threat, and the reason the government might start acting differently, is from the implecation that these (I suppose in this case 12.5 million) people are ready to hang the government. If they aren’t ready to do that, fuck all is going to change. As it is right now, it seems 99% of the protesters are pacifists. As in, going to do fuck all either way.
That is the tricky thing about basing predictions on historic trends. IIRC, is was Arab spring in some countries that broke the rule (and that “rule” was calculated based on data from 1900-2006). I’m also curious how Nepal and Madagascar stack up compared to historic trends.
Other aspects of Chenoweths research (such as the importance of “converting” certain factions such as police or military - or at least getting them to be neutral) are important as well but don’t get as much traction as the clickbaity 3.5% number does
ETA: Nepal’s discord had about 100k members, and it’s population is 29 million. So that was well below 3.5%. Like No Kings, Nepals protests were decentralized, which is potentially a factor compared to historic protests which tend to be focused on a single location or march
I’ve studied it quite a bit, and I stand by what I posted. Nothing is guaranteed, but the Tipping Point is a real phenomenon. That said, every situation is different, and it isn’t a Universal Truth, just a guide.
The primary point is that it doesn’t take an enormous wave to effect change. Studies and history have demonstrated that a Tipping Point can POTENTIALLY happen with as little as 3.5%.
Sure, but it makes no sense to just focus on the numbers. No threshold will be sufficient for change. And there’s also no numerical requirement for it. Those stats only have meaning the other way around - a successful “revolution” required X amount of people in the past. Matching that number will do nothing on its own
You aren’t understanding that it doesn’t matter. The bigger the crowds, the worse it is for MAGA, and they KNOW it. Assigning a number that can make them panic as it increases is the objective. It’s an enormously powerful psychological tool
Maybe it isn’t accurate, or it’s more nuanced than that, but all that is lost on MAGAs. They are cowardly to their core, so if they think their world ends at 12.5 million people, then they will get more and more frightened as we get closer, and either fight or surrender. Most will surrender, and we can deal decisively with those who try to fight.
We have to keep beating them over the head with the rising number getting closer and closer to the Tipping Point. That will keep them increasingly scared and vulnerable.
There’s definitely been some fallacious “appeals to popularity” from them. Like, someone will say that “I empathize with other human beings”, and they’ll snicker “Oh, buddy. You just outed yourself. The days are coming for people like you.” and the first person will just reply “WTF are you talking about? I don’t care if there are only 2 other people like me in the world, or if you’re threatening me, I’ll still hold to empathy.”
Those conversations worry them. Learning that they’re the minority, especially when the majority is not easily typecast as “illegal immigrants”, scares them.
3.5% participation is required for a population to reach a Tipping Point, and start a trend that leads to change. In America, that’s about 12.5 million people. The last No Kings protest was about 5.5 million people, this one was around 7 million, so we’re getting closer.
The thing to remember, because MAGA surely does, is that the 12.5 million doesn’t all have to be out marching. The No Kings protesters represent less than half of their actual numbers. In fact, they probably represent less than 20% of their total. A LOT of sympathizers stayed home, most of them, in fact.
MAGA understands that the protesters are only a small portion of the actual resistance, and they know they are surrounded. It’s time that the rest of the country recognizes that.
No kings needs to accelerate their frequency. This needs to move to every night.
Seem to be a lot of people posting this so I’ll just repost what I wrote elsewhere :
The 3.5% theory is extremely questionable. The first paragraph of (the BBC) article is problematic if you know like 3 things about Philippine politics.
I’ve dug deeper into the data and it is very opinionated how it defines “success” and violence/nonviolence.
I’m not a pro-violence guy, i defend liberation struggles, but work to create educational/political/cultural revolution. Also the 3.5% mobilized population would be rad AF in USAmerica.
I haven’t read the whole book the study is based on, though I was working on it for a while. But IMO it misrepresents historical fact to make a nice-sounding abstraction, and I’m not sure how people will react to its failure, which would be based on a faulty premise.
We need to be more focused on what we will do with the power that will come from mobilizing like 12 million Americans rather than hoping some members of the political class notice and decide to fix things. The actual problem is that power is kept out of the hands of workers. The thought of building that power and giving it away would be a catastrophic blow to our movements.
The political system is empowered to fix problems, but not equipped. As far as I can tell, the only people who have ever created or fixed a goddamn thing in all of history have been workers.
No it doesn’t and stop posting this as gospel and read what the people who observed this actually say. For one there is one where 6% of the population was involved and it failed. Another protests are becoming less effective both peaceful and violent. Another other factors are also important besides the 3.5 number. Look up what these guys actually say instead of arriving some magical number.
I’d like to add. You also need them to actually be afraid. If they know a few protests is all it’s ever going to become, they won’t give half a shit. The threat, and the reason the government might start acting differently, is from the implecation that these (I suppose in this case 12.5 million) people are ready to hang the government. If they aren’t ready to do that, fuck all is going to change. As it is right now, it seems 99% of the protesters are pacifists. As in, going to do fuck all either way.
That is the tricky thing about basing predictions on historic trends. IIRC, is was Arab spring in some countries that broke the rule (and that “rule” was calculated based on data from 1900-2006). I’m also curious how Nepal and Madagascar stack up compared to historic trends.
Other aspects of Chenoweths research (such as the importance of “converting” certain factions such as police or military - or at least getting them to be neutral) are important as well but don’t get as much traction as the clickbaity 3.5% number does
ETA: Nepal’s discord had about 100k members, and it’s population is 29 million. So that was well below 3.5%. Like No Kings, Nepals protests were decentralized, which is potentially a factor compared to historic protests which tend to be focused on a single location or march
I’ve studied it quite a bit, and I stand by what I posted. Nothing is guaranteed, but the Tipping Point is a real phenomenon. That said, every situation is different, and it isn’t a Universal Truth, just a guide.
The primary point is that it doesn’t take an enormous wave to effect change. Studies and history have demonstrated that a Tipping Point can POTENTIALLY happen with as little as 3.5%.
But no revolution comes with a guarantee
Sure, but it makes no sense to just focus on the numbers. No threshold will be sufficient for change. And there’s also no numerical requirement for it. Those stats only have meaning the other way around - a successful “revolution” required X amount of people in the past. Matching that number will do nothing on its own
You aren’t understanding that it doesn’t matter. The bigger the crowds, the worse it is for MAGA, and they KNOW it. Assigning a number that can make them panic as it increases is the objective. It’s an enormously powerful psychological tool
Maybe it isn’t accurate, or it’s more nuanced than that, but all that is lost on MAGAs. They are cowardly to their core, so if they think their world ends at 12.5 million people, then they will get more and more frightened as we get closer, and either fight or surrender. Most will surrender, and we can deal decisively with those who try to fight.
We have to keep beating them over the head with the rising number getting closer and closer to the Tipping Point. That will keep them increasingly scared and vulnerable.
And making them panic does what, exactly?
There’s definitely been some fallacious “appeals to popularity” from them. Like, someone will say that “I empathize with other human beings”, and they’ll snicker “Oh, buddy. You just outed yourself. The days are coming for people like you.” and the first person will just reply “WTF are you talking about? I don’t care if there are only 2 other people like me in the world, or if you’re threatening me, I’ll still hold to empathy.”
Those conversations worry them. Learning that they’re the minority, especially when the majority is not easily typecast as “illegal immigrants”, scares them.
A good number of sympathizers were too busy working to stay afloat