Image is of the Preah Vihear Temple on the Cambodian border. Image sourced from the UNESCO World Heritage website.
Over the last few days, Thailand and Cambodia entered into a heightened stage of conflict due to a long-running border dispute. Like many problems on this planet, Europeans are ultimately to blame - specifically France. Certain sections of the border drawn up by France about a century ago were not fully agreed upon by both sides, with the ownership of some Khmer temples being the most visible points of disagreement.
Despite interventions in favor of Cambodia in the 1960s and later 2010s by the ICJ - one of the mainly mostly useless global institutions that liberals periodically disown - the border conflict has simmered at a generally low level. Of the two countries, Thailand is significantly more militarily and economically powerful.
Last Wednesday, a Thai soldier lost his leg by stepping on a landmine, prompting a rapid escalation between Cambodia and Thailand that has since resulted in dozens of deaths and tens of thousands displaced. Cambodia was willing to come to the negotiating table fairly quickly, but Thailand was more hesitant. International pressure on the two countries by Malaysia, China, and the United States eventually forced Thailand to the table, and they have recently agreed to an immediate ceasefire courtesy of ASEAN.
Notably, Trump refused to hold trade talks with either country until they agreed to peace, which suggests that he really wants a Nobel Peace Prize - which he seems a shoe-in for given that he’s met the two most important requirements that several Nobel Peace Prize recipients have needed to meet in the past, which are: 1) start at least one war, and 2) accelerate the genocide of millions of people as billions more people watch on. His policies vis-a-vis ICE creating a domestic terror regime only further increase his chances of winning the prize.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Sky News (tv) has been banging on ALL DAY that China is preparing to invade Taiwan. Why are they suddenly on this shit again? Is it true? I don’t even know anymore.
News: The United States of America are preparing to invade Florida
The US can force China to invade whenever they want to by shipping enormous quantities of weapons, or by starting construction of US military bases there.
The most logical time for this to happen is when China is weakest and the US is strongest, which means ASAP.
I almost think the Russia-Ukraine war, the situation in the Middle East, and even Trump’s North Korea rapprochement were part of a YOLO attempt to eliminate global threats to US hegemony before focusing on China. It doesn’t seem to have worked, thankfully.
I disagree on this threshold, it would need to be much higher, unrealisticaly higher e.g Cuban crisis 2.0 with US nukes on Taiwan. Maybe that would get China to engage on some level, but even then they would try other methods first.
Army bases on Taiwan are irrelevant, I don’t get what would be special about them considering it is still an island, considering the vast distance from US mainland and considering its extremely easy to cut off. Put 10k US soldiers on Taiwan and all they’ll accomplish is to be like that WW2 Japanese soldier still fighting alone 20 years later or something.
Then allow me to move the goal posts: the US could “secretly” help Taiwan move toward nuclear weapons. The point is, if they want to force China to invade, they absolutely can.
Nah, Taiwan was actually close to nuking up during the 80s before one of the generals ratted them out because he was secretly working for the CIA. They had a window of opportunity because relations between Taiwan and the Mainland wasn’t fully normalized yet. But now there’s no way for them to secretly develop nukes like they did during the 80s.
Doesn’t have to actually be secret, which is why I put in in quotes. Only if China found out about it would it force them to invade.
Hell, the US could move to station their own nukes in Taiwan.
All the PRC has to do is begin holding those naval drills as soon as components for nuclear weapons start arriving in Taiwan. Those naval drills are basically short naval blockades since fuel carriers can’t enter Taiwan while the drills are happening, and Taiwan is almost completely reliant on imported fossil fuels.
Taiwan hardly has regular nuclear power plants. They’re all being decommissioned because reasons.
Yet another failed policy by the DPP.
I mean I wrote unrealistic but realy meant more like impossible honestly.
Taiwan nukes is not something that can be pushed without public support. It would have to start with a complete 180 on their current civilian nuclear power position, see nuclear free homeland. If it goes this route I’m not even sure China would oppose a Taiwan nuclear energy program, not like they have power to stop it without incredible bad look.
There is no logical time for the US to do that because China already has the upper hand in that theater even if the US was able to focus on it as much as it could. There is no logical time to start a hot war that you’ll lose or one that will end in nuclear Armageddon (also because you will lose but are a sore loser). Sure you have more of a fighting chance now than 5 years in the future when it would be really joever but the odds are still against you.
I agree, but I’m looking at it from the neocon perspective. It’s tough to say whether they actually want a war, but they clearly do want to stop China’s rise at any cost.
Not quite yet. US is low on weapons due to Ukraine and the zionist entity. Is currently building weapons production capacity in Europe and in Ukraine which will come online within the next ~2 years.
So from that perspective the US is still arranging the chessboard while China’s own moves seem limited and aimed at delaying at most. Latest chessboard moves are trying to get India to openly break from the rest of BRICS and be a spoiler that chooses the west over Russia and the rest of BRICS which could absolutely succeed given the mentality of Indian leadership and their fash boot-licking followers (you know the weirdos who unprompted beg western reactionaries to notice them and stan anything the west does in exchange for a crumb of attention, a quick glance their direction validating them). So IMO the point the US forces it is when their weapons production capacity can keep up with China longer and when they’ve also finished reshoring/friendshoring a few critical things and built back up their stockpiles of rare earths for weapons production. So 2027-2028 probably.
US is getting agitated to wind down the Ukraine war without a loss for the west which is unacceptable to Russia who requires that the west accede to terms that are clearly a loss for them. Hence the latest sanctions which they’ll be slapping on soon trying to pressure Russia into an agreement that lets them save face. Presumably they want a freeze of the conflict where Russia gets to keep the seceded oblasts they de jure (in their own country) already absorbed into Russia proper, Ukraine gets to keep some sort of fairly strong western military but without NATO membership, and the west gets to keep its pillaged privatized spoils of valuable Ukrainian minerals, farmland, and the cheap defense production capacity they’ve built and are building up even more in the far west of the country which can be used to supply the US arsenal in a war on China.
But I agree the US can force China’s hand. Just have their DPP puppets announce formal declaration renouncing all claims to the mainland, announcing independence and announce their (US) plans to build a big military base there and say “we’re shipping in our nukes and latest radar and anti-missile systems in three months” and China will be basically forced to react.
Taiwan is way too rich to suicide like Ukraine did. Capitalists here control everything and they have too much to lose. TBH I don’t think China would invade even if Taiwan “announced independence” as they’re already independent. I seriously don’t see China starting a war just because Taiwan itself won’t admit to being a part of China even harder, which they aren’t. Lai’s last statement was something like Taiwan doesn’t need to announce independence because it’s already independent. If there’s formal independence, basically annulling the invader’s (KMT) claims, that would make China lose face. They really want to start a war over being insulted? Look at the current state. They say they own Taiwan, and keep adding “, China” to where Taiwan is named. That’s just LARPing.
As of right now the CPC spends a lot of effort to undermine the gov, and do all sorts of marketing operations that aren’t having any effect.
I really hope you’re right, but the way things are going…
eh, the US doesn’t even give Taiwan anything good. I don’t think they actually trust us that much.
The latest attempt attempt at lawfare by the DPP failed miserably. Trump also snubbed Lai by refusing to allow Lai to stop at NYC. Perhaps those two are related to that.
The DPP is if the kids who ran for class president on the ban homework platform became actual politicians
Lots of US, UK and Australian military exercises in the region. Australia practiced sinking naval targets using US anti ship ballistic and supersonic cruise missiles (PrSM and SM-6) recently. Japan launched Type 12 anti ship missiles. USS Carl Vinson and HMS Prince of Wales aircraft carriers are in the region, with squadrons of F-35C and F-35B aircraft, Japan will deploy their F-35Bs to the Nansei Islands.
So far it looks like the usual military exercises, just larger scale than before.
Flashing back to my cope prior to Russia invading Ukraine
Russia did military exercises for years before that though
They were bigger than previous years but yea. I remember seeing that 200k thousand troops were deployed and thinking “that not enough to invade Ukraine” and assumed it was just media shit. When they actually did and fell on their face the first few months I felt a little vindicated for that take lol
Snatching decades where nothing happens from the jaws of weeks where decades happen
it is not true
within 10-15 years Taiwan will reunify via cultural and economic victory, there’s no need
How do you see this actually unfolding?
it obviously requires continued American decline but I kind of take that as a given at this point. some major crisis of American power results in Taiwan’s elite feeling better off going for a “one country two systems” type of accomodation with the mainland. my timeline guess was longer before but look how much damage has been done to the empire in the last six months. maybe it takes the USD losing reserve status I don’t know
Prob starts through a trade agreement like NAFTA but w China and Vietnam or something. They may never fully unify( I’m thinking a degree or two more separation compared to HK) but be so intermeshed it doesn’t matter imo.
All plausible. I guess I’m somewhat skeptical of the timeline. Taiwan is too libbed up to move from soft power alone.
I think China will have to start vastly outcompeting TSMC to force the material conditions away from exporting semiconductors to the west before any actual change can occur.
I don’t think the collapse of the west is that imminent, even if the inevitable death spiral has begun.
China wins by waiting, so that’s why I think it will take more like 20-25 years. I hope your timeframe is right though.
yeah I see where you’re coming from and 20-25 years is probably a more realistic estimate… but let’s check again when this LLM bubble finally pops and/or the EUV photolithography megafactory is online. there could be weeks where decades happen
That’s not how reality works though. It doesn’t matter if China becomes ultra rich and Taiwan becomes ultra poor. People aren’t going to let a foreign country take over theirs. At best Taiwan stops caring about threats from the US and aligns more with China and China stops larping that they own Taiwan.
it’s just Chinese nationalism
I’ve heard you’ll be able to ride a train to Taiwan by 2035.
a 130km railway tunnel boggles the mind but if it can be done… wow
They run this stupid shit every 2-3 months for views and clicks.
Why would China decide to invade now and throw everything off balance when the status quo is working just fine, and completely derail any current momentum?
Same thing with the stories about the US planning to invade China by 2027 or whatever.
i live in taiwan and no
they don’t actually want taiwan. they say they do for face reasons. but the idea that China wants Taiwan to take over TSMC like it’s Red Alert and they put their red engineers in and turn TSMC red is just silly. China will catch up in semis in about 3 years.