BynarsAreOk [none/use name]

Yes, re-industrialization can and will eventually happen, but it won’t happen immediately.

It definitely wont happen exactly because there is a reason capitalists moved to the global south in the first place. Industry in the north is not profitable. This will never change unless the north population goes through either some massive economic shock doctrine akin to a WW2/3 scenario or probably massive climate change catastrophe.

Its like every single time we forget history, the only reason why the US industry grew in the first place, the only reason the west managed to industrialize in the first place, the obvious consequences for Germany when they were put on the dead end of industrialization(e.g entirely dependent on imported energy).

If we consider these things the US is far more likely to collapse and balkanize. I expect chuds shooting liberals well before chuds and liberals hands together working in a factory for $5 an hour which is necessary for industrial profitability nowadays.

This is not to say that America will be a bad place to live in, it is simply that its standard of living will be below what its citizens are currently able to “enjoy” (in relative terms to the Global South). Meanwhile, real economic growth will happen in the East where their living standards will be far above the former Imperial Core, and you can expect many skilled talents would seek to emigrate as well.

If by “East” you mean China yeah maybe if we consider the richest cities, otherwise you need some reality checks on what the average work and life condition in Japan and South Korea is like.

Right at the start this idiot starts with a talk about how they are still healthy as if the point is to work and work until you are unhealthy. Its the fucking 21st century, we have technology and rising productivity, some countries, neoliberal countries even are toying with reducing work hours and here are these ghouls trying to excuse raising the retirement age.

Completely soulless and ghoulish and imo there is simply no excuse that doesn’t borrow from our enemies rethoric so it is what it is I’m sure this is all part of the “great plan”, try to cope I guess.

Hexbear doing the clickbait anti-china thing where a random proffesor/media person/low level official says something means “China says”, weird

What on earth are you even talking about, how on earth is it clickbait, HOW ON EARTH IS IT ANTI-CHINA, its literally China Global TV Network, you know, LITERALLY THE STATE OFFICIAL TV NETWORK.

What more do you want? Do you think they’d ever say something as important as this without approval?

Holy shit the mental gymnastics to avoid an L.

This material is distributed by MediaLinks TV, LLC on behalf of CCTV

Surely thats a rhetorical question once you look at any global temperature chart its clear the US wont collapse in 20 years isn’t it?

Not sure why this type of garbage mainstream econ “common sense” got upvoted.

Respecfuly, read Graeber’s BS jobs. China isn’t a magical place exempt from those issues. On the contrary, recent years there is an issue with larger youth unemployment due to too many graduates not finding white collar jobs i.e people want BS jobs that pay well and give benefits. It got nothing to do with productivity or the “workforce”.

Tell the office workers in every T1 city they have to take 4h off every week to help with local community services for example, or just reduce the work hours in general.

There are solutions, it requires the party to reevaluate their commitment to economic growth at any cost. China is a complicated topic but the easiest way for them to fail is to listen to exactly this type of mainstream western econ shitty rethoric and surprise surprise stupid decisions like this happens exactly when they do that.

Personaly climate change is still the main issue. The data showed the COVID lockdowns were similar to what would be necessary to avoid 1.5C.

At the bare minimum if you wanted to be “civil” about it, we would need global governments to completely enforce a survival mode only economic system, no economic activity beyond the stritcly necessary.

On that front China should absolutely be praised as they’re literaly the only ones improving massively, but unfortunately its not enough, the longer we take the more drastic measures would be necessary. Crazy to think but its 2025 already and literaly all projections followed the “worst possible” or “Unexpected” projection lol.

A large part of my frustration is that our past revolutionary comrades never predicted or had to deal with such a hard deadline. Lenin, Mao or Castro etc, none of them were told “if you fail humanity will die in less than a generation”.

And it is this lack of urgency that is worrysome. I realy couldn’t care less about Chinese or Soviet “diplomacy” towards the US if the year was 1955 and all we fantasized was FALGSC in the year 2000.

Instead its 2025 and we count how many different climate disasters are going to happen within the next 10 years.

Russia got too comfortable with the mild sanctions effect in the first two years that they actually believed they can rely on China forever. They are now paying the price.

This is entirely expected, but it wasn’t a “mistake”. The entire dedollarization rhetoric is a relic of 2022 when it was looking like China was actualy willing to take an independent and adversarial stance against the west. This meant BRICS could have been a viable alternative for a multipolar world under Chinese leadership. Maybe if China continued on that path and decided 2022-2025 would be the time period to settle the Taiwan question using BRICS as their defensive bloc.

Instead of course we get the opposite. The west complained, a Pelosi humiliated them and the media called them “wolf warriors” then everything took a 180 turn. China since then reassured the west that they wont even try to use BRICS as their own bloc/platform and that they only want “collaboration” and “peace”.

I’ll quote MR way from April '23 where he basicaly confirms all these “difficulties” with dedollarization(putting it mildly)

Since the stupid embarrassing Xi-Biden meeting in Nov '23(which happened over a month after Oct 7th and after everyone knew what the Gaza genocide looked like), China says US bad for everyone that wants to hear. Then they turn around and literaly welcome the same people we call nazis here. They are following through with what they say, like it or not.

I think dedollarization is still possible but it requires commitment to creating a crisis for the global economy and sadly nobody wants that. Sadly atm there is not much to look forward to, there is no indication China will change their stance.

I think that China could do absolutely untold damage to the American psyche and illusion of invulnerability if it simply instantly obliterated these clowns on Taiwan from hundreds of kilometers away with a cloud of drones dense enough to block out the sun.

IDK about this, I think this is quite unrealistic and almost mythical level thinking.

IMO drones work well in Ukraine because its a huge battlefield we haven’t seen something like this since WW2. For some context the Ukraine war front is well over 1000km.

The current Korean DMZ is a “tiny” 250km. The Taiwan straight is also something like 300kmx180km or so.

This means that both sides have trouble providing consistent and effective air cover for their troops, despite the Russian natural advantage Ukrainian drones are still quite effective.

Turning to Taiwan this is the opposite, it would be a very concentrated battle and anti-drone systems should be more effective simply because its a smaller area.

China already achieved military superiority over the US and the conflict will be decided over naval superiority by destroying or even damaging the US carrier fleet. In fact I do like the theory sinking a US carrier would be far worse than 9/11 for the average population and internal US politics, although perhaps that would mean accepting a WW3.

The mainstream economic circus is finaly admitting the recession is coming and with that the oil is on a massive downtrend. Careful with opportunists saying meaningless shit at times like these.

Why are you taking this US statement at face value? Isn’t it obvious this is just nonsense to give Biden and Kamala the PR that they sometimes oppose Israel when in reality they don’t?

Who cares about the amount of money the US wastes on the military at this point in history when the debt is a literal infinite line goes up chart with literaly no consequences ever?

Are we expecting the unicorn time, the one day in history where someone will actualy realize “hey maybe we can’t spend as much this year”? Even if that somehow happens surely there are absolutely less relevant places to cut money from then the US literal biggest vassal.

I think it would be wrong for any historian to not at least acknowledge that idk some 80% of Russian military technology and current capabilities were inhereted from the USSR. Indeed the war was fought primarily with cold war era weapons from old NATO stocks and former USSR countries all sent to Ukraine. Its basically the cold war went hot scenario but 30 years later.

Even at the worst times the USSR was a far bigger geopolitical opponent than BRICS is or will likely ever be imo exactly because China doesn’t want to fight the US military or otherwise and as such their strategy is to be friends with everyone at the same time.

The end result is even if the US ends up having to readjust their behavior they’re still the only major power willing to force others to do their bidding.

This is why @shipwreck@hexbear.net (or whatever alt they use nowadays) talks about American control over Europe so much, and why they say that the real purpose of the Ukraine War was to weaken Europe. Somebody who is well-versed in Cold War history might see this as a ridiculous conclusion - Europe and America have been allies for decades! For at least a century, even! Europe had been accepting American military aid to combat a potential Soviet invasion for more-or-less the whole Cold War! The thing is that being allies is insufficient for American aims.

They can say that but it doesn’t mean its a compelling argument.

Not only we know the US thought Russia would fold due to the sanctions, there were key events and circunstances pre-'22 that were not particularly under US control. For example the German Green party are largely responsible for Germany moving away from nuclear power, but this policy started in the 2000s even. Germany was supposed to become a green energy monster, there was so much propaganda about how wholesome Germany got so many solar panels or something.

The anti-nuclear movement didn’t care, back in the 2000s everyone also thought the cold war was over and Russia was going to be integrated into the west as this was what both sides wanted. Some people were still scared about Russia but it was not worth taking Russia as an enemy compared to the relatively cheap energy.

Key events like Fukushima played a huge role too.

But also the EU was the only export market for American corporations and high tech. Europeans were the ones rich enough to buy shit from American industry. It would serve no purpose for the US to “weaken” Europe if it means no secondary market for US exports.

Remember the 08 crisis and the fallout over the EU? Remember how Spain, Italy, Ireland and Greece got fucked? The only reason the EU survived was German imperialism over this periphery. If Germany falls, so would the EU back then.

By the mid 2010’s we’re barely out of the '08 crisis, certainly any major geopolitical event could be an unsustainable setback for the global economy. I can’t imagine anyone would be thinking about a NATO proxy war in Europe as a good thing for a global economy just barely recovering from 2008.

So to look at that and arrive at some conspiracy theory that 14 years later Russia would actual pull the trigger over retaliating against Ukraine(and we have to skip 2014 and Crimea issue too) was actualy a grand plan everyone knew all along this is what would happen?

But we have even more evidence during the war, for example the attempts at putting an oil price cap remember? The US/EU thought, no they demanded to be handed over energy for the price they felt entitled to. No they went further, they practically made Russian tankers illegal by removing their insurance from England.

They literaly, actualy realy thought Russia would fold one way or the other, they tried almost everything. Why? Because they recognized the EU was in serious trouble and the US wanted to eat their cake and have it i.e remove Putin but also ensure Russian energy remains in the global market.

If they didn’t think this would work then who was leading who here? Was the US playing dumb telling the EU “hey we’ll put some more sanctions on Russia, maybe even force them to send you oil because they have no alternative and it will all be fine just trust me bro”

Their ideal solution was a coup led by a population suffering from sanctions, it always works until it doesn’t.

Its important to keep in mind twitter is not popular in Brazil at all, its literaly the least used social network among the big ones, it falls well behind FB, Instagram, and specialy Whatsapp and TikTok.

Nobody should expect the US to do big moves over a controversial and shitty company like Twitter and that is even before Musk’s image.

They say there monitoring it exactly because IMO they’ll allow it because its Twitter, its a shit company by any standard anyway but its a warning “don’t get any ideas”.

Torrent Freak

Answering the OP, there is more(growing collaboration and lobbying) there but one reason

Vietnam’s Upcoming U.S. Cinema Promotion Program

Highlighting benefits for Vietnam shows that this enforcement action doesn’t only impact U.S. rightsholders. In this regard, it’s worth mentioning another collaboration, which remains unmentioned in today’s press release.

According to documents published by Vietnamese authorities, the country is currently planning a Cinema and Tourism Promotion Program in the United States.

Hollywood can play an important role in drawing more American tourists to Vietnam. By choosing Vietnam as a film location, more people may be inclined to visit, for example. This plan is now underway and events in Los Angeles are scheduled for later this year.

Translated, Vietnam’s Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism describes the goal as follows:

“Take advantage of the prestige and influence of Hollywood partners to organize the Program, attract public attention, and widely promote Vietnamese tourism. Promote tourism promotion through cinema, effectively exploit tourism from cinema, create a breakthrough in tourism promotion and promotion.”

The Motion Picture Association, under which ACE is managed, is in the loop too. According to the paperwork, an unnamed representative of the movie industry group is scheduled to give a speech at the event.

How the MPA will benefit from this tourist promotion program remains undiscussed. That being said, with the Fmovies piracy ring effectively shut down, the event will likely be quite a cheerful one. That may even have been part of the plan.

Don’t worry you wont be disappointed during the election later this year.

How do you go from “unconditional” to “a temporary incentive that barely covers anything”?

I think a lot of people are not particularly familiar with the pre-Yang grifter UBI platform, specialy on reddit.

The basic argument was that given an unconditional income people would rather use their time to do things that can lead to improving their material conditions. If you have income you can study or take a second job or learn a craft etc. This was supported by the Manitoba experiment and the fundamental point still holds.

The caveats and the left critique is only against the Yang grifter shit. On that I agree its just pipe dreams. But a serious UBI proposal existed before then and it definitely included key points like healthcare reform. From day 1 I think most people understood it would make no point to be given UBI just to spend on healthcare and rent. At that point its not income its a subsidy to those industries.

So considering a serious UBI proposal, as I see it COVID got nothing to do with this. It wasn’t unconditional and it wasn’t income, it was some temporary stimulus people got. Not only that, during the pandemic people were literaly doing the opposite of having freedom to take other activities. Education and some jobs were temporarily moved online but otherwise nothing changed.

Nobody took COVID checks and were like “guess I don’t have to work for the next 5 years now”.

I think worse still is pushing this narrative starts to validate mainstream neoiibs economics gaslighting narratives that the problem with inflation was that people had too much extra money and the years the Fed spent trying to control inflation through interest rates targeting “excess savings”. Both of these are absolute garbage nonsense theories that only serves to punch on the working class.

At best you’re validating neoliberals arguments here, we should be careful, this realy depends on whether you are talking about serious UBI or Yang shit. Its not so superficialy simple like that.

I think this is exactly the post someone would write in 2003 about millennials after the dotcom bubble, 9/11 and the wars. In that post they even somehow predicted the 2008 crisis. Look at where we are now.

In order to rebel there must be an alternative and there is no alternative because the AES aren’t as big an influence as the USSR was in the 1950s. The US was actualy worried about communism back then.

The US is not worried about “Socialism with Chinese characteristics”, apart from dipshits at the Fed and media being the mouthpieces of neoliberals nobody actualy cares about what China is doing.

Even if we assumed China is a perfect model to follow, there is already a generational fear since 2019. China will always be the social credit, communism is when cartoon bear owns you etc. Now after COVID every good government initiative is somehow draconian and evil because they resemble the evil SEESEEPEE.

If you want a optimistic prediction maybe when the first huge climate crisis occurs(e.g blue ocean event) there will be significant protests against some parts of the economy. Maybe eventualy the oil industry will take a hit because it will be politically unsustainable. Does that mean they’re rebelling against capitalism? The media will push that. “Oh no the young generation are anti-capitalist because checks notes they don’t want to die due to some shit industry destroying the planet” is a headline from an article around 15-30 years from now. Yeah because communism is when you have a green energy policy.

if nukes were flying toward Russia through Chinese territory the yanks could just pinky-promise to China they’re for Russia and they’d keep theirs away?

Given China’s extreme confidence in “peaceful” “collaboration” shit there is a non-zero chance they’d believe this. They would give exactly the same reason people give here today “oh why should we involve our 1.4 billion people in a nuclear war in Europe?”

In any case whether we agree on this or not, first and foremost you’re aware that US nukes would fly over the north pole not Asia?

You’re right about everything else, these people suck and they’re idiots.

They specifically mean the Russian oil industry and Ukrainian electrical grid. This is both sides bargaining chip.

It makes sense since both sides(US and Russia) benefits from the current oil market status quo too.

If Ukraine does get their way and somehow manages a significant disruption this could send oil on a huge price spike and it could still have effects on the US election, though this was before Kamala I think now it wont matter.

I think the fact is enabling Ukraine to go to these attacks could further de-stabilize Europe heading into the winter again is another factor. Also considering this was happening while there were new fears of a ME wide war.

Either way I don’t think there is anything particularly shameful or worrisome, both sides would be looking for their self-interest in the current status quo so a separate agreement around the oil industry could make sense.

However in this case it definitely would give Russia the bad look here so it also makes sense for them to deny it. They already made peace demands previously so this is certainly a clown looking move.

China will do its own thing and at its own pace. No Westerners or countries get to impose their will upon them.

You know how incredibly ironic this sounds when the US literaly does just that in Taiwan(though at least here they’ll be forced into a war) or the whole dollar dominance issue you love to talk about so much. And you not even wrong on that either, dedollarization isn’t happening yet etc, but at the same time yeah nobody will impose their will on China, except the US Secretary of State or the Fed, then its always a red carpet reception lol.