FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker shows Joe Biden has a 53 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 46 percent chance.

Polls are crap

It’s a little bit notable how they change over time, but mostly it is just a bunch of poor methodology noise

But, I do feel it’s relevant to point out that even in polling land Biden has been gaining for the last few weeks and it’s notable which media outlets are pretending it is the opposite of that (like severely the opposite) and to wonder why that is

  • aseriesoftubes@lemmy.world
    212·
    2 months ago

    Trump’s margins over President Joe Biden have narrowed since June in two key swing states: Florida and North Carolina

    Florida is a swing state? Ha, good one!

    • themeatbridge@lemmy.world
      24·
      2 months ago

      Polls currently have it closer than it’s been in a while. Biden might not win there, but more competitive battlegrounds means more voters, and more voters is good for democracy.

      • mozz@mbin.grits.devOP
        28·
        2 months ago

        The anti abortion people figured this out 40 years ago, and they kept pushing for 40 years, and look they got their victory, against impossible odds.

        The fairly normal things the left wants to do would be a lot easier to achieve if we could display the same level of stubbornness.

        • knightly the Sneptaur@pawb.social
          21·
          2 months ago

          It’s hard to be stubborn about politics when the closest thing we have to an ally shares most of its campaign financiers with the enemy.

          • mozz@mbin.grits.devOP
            22·
            2 months ago

            Biden: A trillion dollars spent on climate change, student loan forgiveness, huge increase in corporate tax to pay for all of that, income inequality is dropping, support for unions, basically the country moving 1% in the right direction for the first time since IDK Carter or something

            Trump: Let’s shoot all the Mexicans

            Lemmy: They’re the same picture

            • knightly the Sneptaur@pawb.social
              13·
              2 months ago

              Lets compare apples to apples, shall we?

              Trump: Let’s shoot all the Mexicans

              Biden: No asylum for “illegal immigrants”, the border patrol gets even more money now, and we’ll waive environmental regulations to build the wall through the habitats of endangered species.

              With friends like these, who needs enemies?

              • mozz@mbin.grits.devOP
                31·
                2 months ago

                Just like a non stop avalanche of bad faith bullshit from you guys, huh

                I dealt with the immigration issue at a lot more length back in my comments from a while ago; I don’t really want to dig it back up and copy paste it, because what’s the point. But short summary, you’re wrong.

                • knightly the Sneptaur@pawb.social
                  14·
                  2 months ago

                  And what if I am wrong?

                  Quibbling about minor differences in policy isn’t going to convince non-voters to vote.

                  If we can’t be honest about the Dem’s weak position in this election then we’ll never be able to change the course of future history.

    • mosiacmango@lemm.ee
      9·
      2 months ago

      Lots of people are tired of culture war bullshit. Not the diehards, but the moderates. All they see are library book bans while their home insurance prices going up 5x.