Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran’s nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran’s government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.
A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?
And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?
Last week’s thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
is there any reason to believe that
a) mamdani will actually win in november despite both the DNC and GOP working against him, in addition to Cuomo and Adams running as independents AND
b) if he gets elected in november, the NYPD won’t just hold his family hostage and threaten to harass/harm/kill them until he resigns or transmogrifies into a more pliant servant of capital AND
c) he won’t shoot himself numerous times in the back of the head?
or am i just being a doomer? it feels impossible to me that the bourgeoisie are just gonna sit by and let this guy do good things in the largest city in the empire
Spent like 2 minutes trying to type out a less eloquent version of this before noticing your post but yeah agreed lmao
Adams and Cuomo have no chance to win the general, winning New York is about name recognition and the dem vote, that’s it
The elites will have to pull some truly unprecedented levels of corruption, voter fraud and downright illegal shit to shut Mamdani down, I don’t even know what that would look like, it would destroy New York City politics
They’re panicking for a reason, Zohran is a lock
Bloomberg won
Giuliani won
Giuliani’s name recognition overcame the dem vote in a freak affair typical of the dismal 90s, while the 9/11 reaction kept Bloomberg’s Republican ass in power long past his expiration date
Just saying it’s not necessarily a lock
Expecting the full court press media smear campaign to kick into overdrive, and maybe the entry of a third non sex pest criminal option
I hope we win but it’s not over until it is over
Zohran has white males, Trump polarization, two scandal ridden opponents who would be dragged down by a neolib third party entry and the dem vote locked down
Zohran is genuinely media savvy unlike AOC or Bernie, the smear campaign so far has fallen flat on it’s face despite tens of millions pumped into it, while at the same time as Zohran’s name recognition is about to skyrocket
If all that doesn’t add up to a Lock, then the word has no meaning
Even if all 3 of those things happen it’s still better politically for the american left than him not winning the nomination and just being another 2% candidate
hence the saying “after a victory, tighten your helmet”
Americans dont tend to have coherent political views. A lot of NYPD officers probably voted for the guy.
There was an NYPD officer posting here lol unless it ended up just being a bit.
The dems will surely try to find ways to ratfuck him still. But it would be highly unusual if the dem primary winner doesn’t win the general.
I am sure there will be even more islamophobic racist attack ads come the general election, but those didn’t work this time around. Eric Adams is hated
I just assume the NYPD would murder him if he refuses to toe the line. He has countermeasures for everything else they can throw at him, even fascist stochastic terrorists (he just needs to have security), but if the NYPD wants him dead, he’s pretty much a dead man walking.
I’m afraid a right - wing nut will do the job. They’re acting like this guy is the end of NYC if he gets elected.
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