Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran’s nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran’s government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.
A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?
And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?
Last week’s thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
All the stupid libs at r/europe are shocked by the NATO Secretary General kissing Trump’s feet.
The most shocking thing here is Mark Rutte on a first name basis with Trump, calling my “dear Donald” is just so jarring. Amazing shit. “Europe is going to pay in a BIG way” is such a vassal state phrase to say.
HIS MAJESTY’S DINNER is even worse lmao
went on r netherland and they’re pretending this is some sort of “high iq” mind game from rutte, of course there was a lot of criticism but these were among the top replies. unbelievable
Imagine being Dutch and defending Kwark Rutte.
Yeah that part stood out to me as well, since the Dutch have fucking hated Rutte for being a useless centrist blob-figure for a while, so why does it surprise them when he acts like a spineless wimp?
they are huffing straight gasoline at NATO command. Playing chicken with nuclear weapons makes us all safer eh? Guess these cold war boomers yern for the good ol days of the arms race with the Soviets
yeah, I agree
Actual supervillain quote
I’ve known for a long time that these people were disgusting bootlicking Quislings but it is really something to see it spelled out like that.
Gonna save this for my lib friend who keeps arguing that Europe/ the West wouldn’t join the US in a war with Iran.
Is your friend a literal baby? Have they not seen…any of the US wars in the past 35 years? Though I get it. “This time it’s different.”
To understand his worldviews is to understand liberal idealism. He doesn’t see institutions like NATO and the EU as inherently bad for the working people, just flawed because of a few corrupt conservatives. He doesn’t see the US government working as an imperialist blob that led to its current state and foreign policy, just a few far-right Republicans and billionaires lacking decorum and doing uncivil things (and all being controlled by Putin because Russia is behind everything bad according to him), that will be corrected after 2-4 years because Democrats are so wholesome and based.
And like a liberal he’s also very contradictory and very much “vibes-based” with his beliefs. He understands what the Gulf and Afghan Wars were about and it’s consequences but doesn’t see the resemblance to the Russia-Ukraine War (he has the standard “Putler is a fascist megalomaniac and wants to take over Europe for no reason” liberal position, and thinks every Russian should be removed). Hell, it took a bit of convincing just to get him to realize what Israel is and why October 7th was an act of resistance against a violent colonizer, very likely because Biden was overseeing the initial genocide.
And I don’t doubt for a second if a Democrat/ liberal were trying to invade Iran my friend would throw all facts and logic out the windows and be 100% behind it.
I would like to think I was never that bad, but I certainly see shades of myself in that worldview, from about a decade ago. It’s frustrating, because there’s no easy way to get someone out of that mindset, they have to consciously realise they aren’t the clever clogs they think they are and they are not the World Geopolitics Understander. It’s a tough journey to make, because it requires humility and self-reflection, two traits that western society despises. I hope your friend gets better, hell, I need to believe people can be better. I can make so much headway with my own liberal friends and then 2 weeks later they’re parroting some fearmongering about China or Russia. It’s maddening, and it’s so easy to just stop “talking politics” with them, but we must never stop explaining.
link to thread?