Last week, the Supreme Court issued an unsigned opinion requiring the Trump administration to “facilitate” the return of Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia, a 29-year-old Maryland man whom immigration officials deported to a Salvadoran megaprison 32 days ago. But the justices pointedly stopped short of requiring the administration to “effectuate” Abrego Garcia’s return, in light of the “deference owed to the Executive Branch in the conduct of foreign affairs.” They did so despite the fact that lawyers for the government have conceded that it had no legal basis to deport Abrego Garcia; in court, they have characterized his disappearance as an “administrative error,” as if shipping a man who has not been accused of a crime to an overseas gulag is the equivalent of neglecting to attach an itemized receipt to an expense report.
I think it is more that the supreme court is looking to collect more than one solid case where it is obvious the president isn’t listening. Because if they pull the trigger and explicitly order him to do something that he isn’t going to do, that will be the turning point. And at that point they only have to real ways to win. One is congressional impeachment, which is their best case outcome. The other is they order him held in contempt and order the marshals to enforce it. It’s not obvious who’s order the marshals will follow. But if they choose the president, then the supreme court has to deputize a force strong enough to arrest the president. And the pres will likely order the military to defend him, and arrest the supreme court. That will likely cause a split in the military between those who will follow that order and those who won’t because it’s the supreme court. And that leads to civil war. So they want to have overwhelming cases and such to persuade congress to act. And trumps popularity is dropping. So is his support even in his own party. So time is on the supreme courts side right now. They don’t want to pull the trigger until they are sure they will win.