The one glimmer of hope here is that NYC has ranked choice voting in the primaries. It’s highly likely that the voters with a preference for the third place or lower candidates (except Eric Adams) would put Mamdani as their second choice, or at least higher than Cuomo. That would make it a 41% to 38% split which means the share Mamdani would need of the undecideds and Adams voters is manageable.
Adams voters definitely go to Cuomo so its closer to 47/38 split and Cuomo has an advantage over undecideds due to name recognition. If we’re generous and split undecideds down the middle its still a 55/45 split for Cuomo.
Mamdani has a chance to be sure but its s slim one. He would have to win at least 80% of undecideds
The one glimmer of hope here is that NYC has ranked choice voting in the primaries. It’s highly likely that the voters with a preference for the third place or lower candidates (except Eric Adams) would put Mamdani as their second choice, or at least higher than Cuomo. That would make it a 41% to 38% split which means the share Mamdani would need of the undecideds and Adams voters is manageable.
Adams voters definitely go to Cuomo so its closer to 47/38 split and Cuomo has an advantage over undecideds due to name recognition. If we’re generous and split undecideds down the middle its still a 55/45 split for Cuomo.
Mamdani has a chance to be sure but its s slim one. He would have to win at least 80% of undecideds