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Cake day: June 18th, 2023

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  • There was a book a while back called Guns, Germs, and Steel that delves into this topic.

    The root cause, as I understand it, is that Europe is on a continent oriented east-west instead of north-south. And Europe in particular is on the part of that continent that has a lot of easy access to the sea.

    East-west orientation allows you to transplant plants and animals long distances and keep them at roughly the same latitudes, which means roughly the same climate. That is a big boon for spreading “civilized” agriculture, which is what creates surplus of labor, which creates non food jobs that advance technology.

    Among the common 5-7 domesticated food animals people eat today, all but one or two were domesticated in Mesopotamia, but then spread all over Europe.

    Access to the sea is the other component that turns tech advantage into colonialism, because it gives the transportation. Even today, China and Russia are great powers, but they are forced to be continental powers instead of maritime powers, because nearly all of their coast lines are hemmed in by narrow seas that are easy to blockade.

    There are, of course, a bunch of other factors I’m not even thinking about and competing opinions. But I don’t for one second think that any of this has anything to do with European “innate intelligence” or skin color.




  • The deal with Utah is it’s actually only 40% Mormon. And when you have a bunch a kids growing up in the Mormon church, a decently large number of them will crash out. And when they crash out, they tend to crash out pretty hard.

    So Utah has large communities for various countercultures and alternative lifestyles. You can visit a random business, and often find both types working together side by side. And it is usually quite obvious which is which from external signs.


  • Predictive mathematics is highly accurate and quite useful at predicting the future already for many types of problems.

    As one example: we can use math models to predict where the planets in the solar system will be.

    The problem with LLM hallucinations is not a general limitation of mathematics or linear algebra.

    The problem is that the LLMs fall into bullshit, in the sense of On Bullshit. The deal is that both truthtellers and liars care about what the real truth is, but bullshit ters simply don’t care at all whether they’re telling the truth. The LLMs end up spouting bullshit, because bullshit is designed to be a pretty good solution to the natural language problem; and there’s already a good amount of bullshit in the LLM training data.

    LLM proponents believed that if you put enough compute power at the problem of predicting the next token, then the model will be forced to learn logic and math and everything else to keep optimizing that next token. The existence of bullshit in natural language prevents this from happening, because the bullshit maximizes the objective function at least as well as real content.


  • The Federal gov in the US has a “road legal” standard for commercial motor vehicles like trucks and buses. The feds also have minimum rules for headlights, brake lights and turn signals on passenger cars.

    Everything else in terms of road legality is a state law in each of the 50 states.

    The reason is the Constitution gives the feds power to regulate interstate commerce (i.e. big commercial vehicles that frequently cross state lines). The feds do not have the general “police power” that states have to pass laws on whatever.



  • I agree that it’s lazy copy editing. “Allegedly” is used in the newspaper business as a magic “get out of any libel suit” word.

    However, I don’t think it’s necessarily safe for the news flat report that Trump “did” the thing. They can report on what Carroll says he did (those are the allegations). And they can report that a jury determined it’s more likely than not that he did the thing.

    This is a situation where explaining it correctly requires several more words than the editors wanted to spare.






  • I gave you the downvote because I once attended a public lecture by Stephen Hawking, near the very end of his lifetime. It had to be one of the few, very last, public lectures that Dr. Hawking had in him. And the topic of that lecture was the nature of time, and how all of the equations of motion are fully reversible, etc, etc etc.

    Out of all of the topics Dr. Hawking could have discussed, that one is the one he chose. And to me, that means that the nature of time was interesting enough to him to spread around to the public. That there are live issues that are not well settled. And so on.

    Since that time, I’ve not seen any major developments in theoretical physics or philosophy to shift the status quo to an appreciable degree.

    This leads me to the final judgement on your comment: You are wrong. There are live issues to discuss here, and OP deserves to further explain, defend, and debate their philosophy.