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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: January 22nd, 2024

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  • Truth of the matter is that predicting and determining when the stock market crashes or if a recession already happened is hard. Saying definitively “there were warning signs and I should have sold my shares” is hindsight bias. When COVID happened, everyone thought that a recession will occur and pulled out their investments. The COVID-induced recession didn’t happen and we have come with a better economy than before thanks to good handling of the economy by governments across the world. Those who sold their investments have to re-buy their shares but it is now at higher price than when they previously bought, and they missed out on potential higher profit had they stayed.

    Of course, the world is not black and white and not all circumstances are the same. It is always a case by case basis and there are variables always at play. We came out well after COVID because we know that we definitely had a good leadership back then. But with economy under Trump, there is a higher chance of recession happening for obvious reasons, not just with AI bubble burst. In that case, it is still bad idea to sell all your shares because you would have to re-buy them at now premium price, but you could diversify your investments to safer countries or sectors in preparation for the high likelihood of a market crash. I have divested from US stocks and bought more European and Japanese ones, and invested in energy sector because it is more resilient even during economic troubles. I might have to rethink about my US healthcare stocks, however.




  • Another kitchen will take its place; always have. Now, whether you agree or not, the next kitchen is likely to be China.

    And not to completely dismiss your point, but like I said in another comment, it’s important to decouple from the kitchen that is US to minimise the consequences. I don’t want another repeat of the Roaring 20’s and the countries too economically intertwined with the US also collapsed when the Great Depression hit. One of those countries who was dragged down the worst was Germany, when American investors pulled out their investments from the country. That severe aftershock gave rise to the Nazis, and the rest is history.