cyd@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 1 年前Nate Silver's model for the 2024 election is out, currently predicts a 65% chance of a Trump victory.www.natesilver.netexternal-linkmessage-square77fedilinkarrow-up1120arrow-down129
arrow-up191arrow-down1external-linkNate Silver's model for the 2024 election is out, currently predicts a 65% chance of a Trump victory.www.natesilver.netcyd@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 1 年前message-square77fedilink
minus-squareObjectivityIncarnate@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up20arrow-down5·edit-27 个月前This is a perfectly succinct, textbook example of Outcome Bias. Betting $1 with a 1 in 3 chance to win $2 is objectively a bad idea; the odds are against you. It doesn’t cease to be a bad idea if you happen to win the $2 after 1 bet.
minus-squareRapidcreek@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up4arrow-down17·1 年前Nothing like one person being right and another being wrong in bringing the amateur philosophers out.
minus-squarebutwhyishischinabook@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up7arrow-down1·1 年前Tell me you don’t understand directionally or literal numbers without telling me…
minus-squareRapidcreek@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up1arrow-down7·1 年前Tell me you don’t know simple English without telling me…
This is a perfectly succinct, textbook example of Outcome Bias.
Betting $1 with a 1 in 3 chance to win $2 is objectively a bad idea; the odds are against you. It doesn’t cease to be a bad idea if you happen to win the $2 after 1 bet.
Nothing like one person being right and another being wrong in bringing the amateur philosophers out.
Tell me you don’t understand directionally or literal numbers without telling me…
Tell me you don’t know simple English without telling me…