• FearfulSalad@ttrpg.network
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    8 hours ago

    Before you roll any dice, the chances of rolling two nat 1s are 1/400. But after you roll your first die, whatever it happened to be, your chances of rolling a nat 1 are 1/20. The chances of the entire scenario have no impact on the probability of the individual rolls

    • Bill Ricker@fosstodon.org
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      8 hours ago

      @FearfulSalad @brian
      The Gambler’s Fallacy even shows up in humor.

      Hitchhiker: “thank you, but aren’t you even a little worried picking up hitchhikers?”

      Driver: “nah bro, the odds of a car having TWO serial killers is too tiny to worry about.”

    • brian@lemmy.ca
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      5 hours ago

      Right but the way I took the meme was that you would roll until you get a 1, then deciding the next roll is the “real” one.

      • Cavemanfreak@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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        5 hours ago

        That’s what the meme says, but probability doesn’t work that way. If you want the result from a roll, what you’ve roller before has no bearing on the result from this roll. Thus the chance for a single d20 roll is always 1/20, or 5%.