Other data of note:
Mamdani continues to go beastmode with young people, putting up regime numbers with a 73% vote share of the under 29 demographic, and a still commanding 62% of voters between the ages of 30 and 44
Amongst all candidates, a plurality of voters believe Mamdani has best addressed the Israel-Palestinian conflict
Seriously, who are the 9% voting for Adams? Are they all cops and relatives of cops? At least Cuomo voters are likely racist Democrats/centrists/divorced dads.
hes secured the turkish vote
He’s scraped together a small coalition of center-right Dems/conservatives plus some holdouts in Jewish communities
DNC will take all of the wrong lessons from this, of course
Candidate running an almost strictly economic campaign is absolutely dominating a 4-way election field?
But will he condemn Hamas?
I think this is the real reason why this guy sparks an ember of optimism in me. Even if everything else good turns to shit and it probably will, if he wins it’s a blow against vibes-based politics across the board.
He won because of his social media campaign, so dem candidates should probably get $10 million social media consultants going forward
The campaign advertised a very good set of proposed policy changes, even if they are mild compared to what’s needed to remedy the ideology killing the human race. Yes it was a good campaign, but it’s literally as simple as being decently charismatic and backing ideas that actually help alleviate conditions for working people. That’s how Obama won. The problem is it pretty much can’t happen at the presidential level and Dems aren’t charismatic relative to their base who probably want material change and not purely racism
he’s campaign obama. i hope he doesn’t turn into mayor obama.
and i wish dem ghouls would at least pretend to support good things because that would let some true believers through and maybe we’d get a few million for pre-k or something
Well they do pretend. Not enough for us but damn it’s more than enough for your ordinary liberal voter
You’ll get nothing and you’ll like it
As is tradition.
How long til we see the ratfucking that happened to sanders in 2020 when all the Obama called all the liberal ghoul candidates and got them to drop out/form a voltron with sleepy joe?
If someone leans hard enough on 2 out of the 3 main opponents, according to this poll then the remaining one might just about scrape over the line.
Of course not all the voters would jump over but who knows. Certainly would be closer than it is now lol
It’s already too late for them to remove their names from the ballot, as the deadline has passed last week. So they will appear on the ballot regardless. Assuming the polls are right, and you really shouldn’t make that assumption, as Mamdani dramatically overperformed polling by >20% in many cases and 30% in a few other polls in the primary, their names appearing on the ballot alone in combination with their name recognition should be enough to stop them from overtaking Mamdani.
The only way to remove their names from the ballot would be an extremely dramatic process that includes moving out of the state of New York to make their appearance on the ballot literally illegal and then all of them successfully fighting that in court individually and winning before ballots are printed, which will be quite soon.
Thanks for the info
I’m expecting it. Might even be Obama again 🙄 Or maybe Biden this time.
The strongest position that can be taken against Mamdani IMO is for Adams and Silwa to drop out and they all + Trump endorse Cuomo. But even that seems highly likely to fail based on this data.
Even then, it’ll never happen. Cuomo, Adams, and Sliwa are ALL egomaniacs and are too personally invested in running to drop out.
On Sliwa:
Sliwa said that the only office he’s ever interested in holding is mayor of NYC, and there’s nothing Trump could offer him to make him not run, and the only way he’d stop campaigning is if he was dead and buried. Tbh Sliwa is the candidate after Mamdani that I’d say clearly loves NYC.
On Cuomo:
Cuomo is Cuomo. He obviously won’t drop out and is too personally invested in this to revive his political career. He’s had a few minor endorsements and has far too much political and economic capital invested in his campaign to allow him to drop out, even if he wanted to. He has the tacit support of many establishment Dems, all invested in not seeing any ascendancy on the left, who can do basically anything but officially endorse him running against their party.
On Adams:
Adams is marred in corruption and unpopularity, but hates Cuomo way more than he hates Mamdani. He actually doesn’t really seem to strongly dislike Mamdani at all. I think his political calculus is that he could try to run again next election cycle and would rather it be against Mamdani, hoping he becomes an unpopular mayor, and that would open up the democratic lane, republican lane, and center lane for him to pursue, after also not having the threat of Cuomo to run against.
On Trump’s failure:
Trump’s best way to get what he wanted out of this would have genuinely been to endorse Mamdani as a poison pill. Thank god he and the people around him are too stupid to have done that. No guarantee it would’ve worked, but Trump already can’t run for reelection so the optics to his base don’t really matter, and it would really hurt Mamdani where his opponents needed it to: with the liberal/center-left Dems who just vote blue in NYC.
On top of all that, it’s too late for candidates to have their names removed from the ballot. That’s pretty much the kiss of death for any anti-Mamdani coalition at this point.
Trump can, in fact run again because his first two terms were not consecutive iirc.
Pretty sure non-consecutive terms don’t matter in the US. The 22nd amendment only refers to being elected no more than twice:
No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once. But this Article shall not apply to any person holding the office of President when this Article was proposed by the Congress, and shall not prevent any person who may be holding the office of President, or acting as President, during the term within which this Article becomes operative from holding the office of President or acting as President during the remainder of such term.
That said he could probably just run for a third term anyway and the courts would say it was okay.
Nah. The 22nd amendment says “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice”.
Now if I wanted to subvert this and had control of the electoral system, I’d simply stack the electoral college so no one gets a majority, upon which the decision devolves to the house, and such a president is “chosen”, not “elected”
That’s not true. The law says you can only hold office twice, not twice in a row
If all those votes went 1 for 1 to Cuomo, but that is unlikely. At least a percentage of them have to hate Cuomo to much to ever vote for him, and Sliwa voters would probably rather stay home if there isn’t a republican in the race.
Also, every bit of Trump tampering makes Zohran even more the anti-Trump candidate.
Not to mention Zohran’s advantage in the ground game and his volunteer army.
It is Zohran’s race to lose. I just hope he is still surrounding himself with socialists and normal folk and staying away from the Dem establishment as best he can.
and staying away from the Dem establishment as best he can.
“Here are the names of some campaign volunteers who can really help you out, kid.”
Not to mention there is a HUGE percentage of the electorate who vote straight ticket and barely look at the names, if they do at all. Mamandi would only need a small percentage of those D voters to win.
He’s already taken on some establishment people to help out his campaign I heard. It doesn’t bode well, but I’ll wait to see.
The establishment dems claim they have data showing Cuomo would win in this scenario. I expect them to try.
we’re going to need more NYT and WSJ editorials scoffing about socialism, ASAP!God if he wins I’d love to be able to afford moving to somewhere in nyc. Having an apartment in a city that’s walkable would be a dream!
It’s your destiny. They don’t call you SorosCarSoldier
Beat my feet to the sound of the street.
I live here. It’s great. Some parts are way cheaper than others. Some years ago (pre pandemic ) one of my friends moved here from the suburbs of … Maryland, I think, and foolishly took a like $4000/mo studio. Meanwhile, in neighborhoods that aren’t adjacent to central park, rent can be half that.
$2k a month is still insanely expensive tho
I’ve lived here basically my whole life so it just seems normal to me. If you’re coming from a car-first place, don’t forget to account for those savings
i lived in nyc for three years so i know how walkable it is, its great. but rent where i live now (big east coast city) is literally 2/3 of that to live in a neighborhood just as walkable as i lived in in brooklyn
Philly is great
jfc i’ve never made so much in a year let alone every other life expense on top
ts so so exciting, i cant shake the feeling that amerikkka is shifting towards leftism way faster than i could have hoped for
it’s easy to doomer and there’s plenty to be pessimistic about but it’s hard to overstate how crazy polling like this is just on its face if you can remember what it was like in the us back when history had ended, arguing with a baker’s dozen members and associates (two of whom were probably cops of slightly differing jurisdiction) of some ‘revolutionary’ book club on a thursday night in a laundromat basement
In a weird way I’m almost more encouraged by the 26% of polled voters saying having a socialist mayor is a neutral/neither good nor bad outcome. It shows the potential for people getting on board with socialist policies even they don’t actively identify with it.
yeah that’s a big part of it for me, the anti socialist response drilled into people from birth here creates a pavlovian response to the word and the way that’s losing some strength anywhere is just nice to see
Honest question: odds he gets arrested, disappeared, or ratfucked? What are the lengths the establishment will realistically go to to stop this man? Will he be allowed to win? If he wins, will he be allowed to rule?
The problem with any of that for the establishment is that he’s just too tame and well liked. It would accomplish more for him and his movement than it would for them. It would honestly be quite hard to ratfuck him at this point. The best thing they can do is make him look horrible as mayor and try to kill the movement with unpopularity.
Regardless of if the other candidates drop out and coalesce the field around Cuomo, it’s too late for them to remove their names from the ballot, which is essentially the kiss of death. They will need 100% of their combined vote share, and no amount of campaigning between now and Election Day will stop at least a few percent from going to them. The only way they can be removed from the ballot is if they literally move out of New York State and fight their own ballot presence in court as illegal, in which case it would be far more obvious what’s happening.
literally move out of New York State
didn’t their current mayor do that a while ago? lol
Any of those would be too conspicuous in the run up to the election. The bourgeoisie can grease the palms of the city council members to get in his way, but the structure of the municipal government puts most of the power in the hands of the mayor.
The most likely form of ratfuckery will be them lobbying the state lawmakers in Albany, particularly governor Hochul, to throw as many roadblocks up in the way of Mamdani’s agenda as possible. I could also see them “encouraging” the police
unions“benevolent associations” to mutiny against Mamdani. That way they could spin it as the salt-of-the-earth
being upset with the champagne socialist while obscuring their role in it.He’ll be AOC’d. Too popular to not support publicly, but the behind-the-scenes against him will be off he scale so that he’s either rendered impotent or brought to heel. Or both.
It all depends on Trump. Democrats and most Republicans are happy to just quietly sabotage socialists, but Trump and his particular Republican faction might actually do something drastic.
Who did you vote for in the 2024 presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, or did you not vote?
OMFG we had “Coma-la Harris” staring us in the face for years and we never saw it!?
