There will be so few able bodied humans extant to perform basic upkeep in 20 years that fundamental infrastructural systems will not JUST be crumbling to dust from sheer neglect as they are now, but actively self-destructing from sustained systemic cascade failure.
Pretty doomerist of you. I’m honestly not concerned about declining populations. Better for the environment, and we’ll figure out the rest through straightforward economics.
I hope so too. One of the key problems you have is taking care of the elderly and infirm with less and less of the younger generation around. It’s a hard one to solve economically without being like “I guess just let them die”.
As the size of the working population declines, labor will reallocate itself from less necessary positions to more necessary ones. So the proportion of the population that would have worked at McDonalds, for example, would work in nursing homes instead.
You’re right and that’s exactly where the problem arises. We’re seeing projections in some places where the need for care workers of various types looks like it will be larger than that countries workforce can bear. I.e., at current levels, there wouldn’t be anyone to work at McDonald’s but then also not enough to work in more necessary roles, basic government, infrastructure, etc.
I could keep talking about this for awhile, you keep touching on good points. One thing that is kinda interesting is that there seems to maybe be a correlation between countries with the lowest birth rates and having a restrictive stance on immigration. Not sure we have actual causation, but we might be relying exclusively on technological improvements and I’m not sure we’re close enough yet for that to work out in time. South Korea might already be fucked.
No, I mean people choose jobs which pay money and are widely available. When jobs to care for the elderly pay well and are widely available relative to other, less necessary work, then people will respond by seeking those jobs. This may require additional training. That’s fine. People will get this training in search if the relatively higher wage. This is basic economics.
Pretty doomerist of you. I’m honestly not concerned about declining populations. Better for the environment, and we’ll figure out the rest through straightforward economics.
I hope so too. One of the key problems you have is taking care of the elderly and infirm with less and less of the younger generation around. It’s a hard one to solve economically without being like “I guess just let them die”.
As the size of the working population declines, labor will reallocate itself from less necessary positions to more necessary ones. So the proportion of the population that would have worked at McDonalds, for example, would work in nursing homes instead.
You’re right and that’s exactly where the problem arises. We’re seeing projections in some places where the need for care workers of various types looks like it will be larger than that countries workforce can bear. I.e., at current levels, there wouldn’t be anyone to work at McDonald’s but then also not enough to work in more necessary roles, basic government, infrastructure, etc.
Increased worker productivity via technology can also help here. Also, immigration.
I could keep talking about this for awhile, you keep touching on good points. One thing that is kinda interesting is that there seems to maybe be a correlation between countries with the lowest birth rates and having a restrictive stance on immigration. Not sure we have actual causation, but we might be relying exclusively on technological improvements and I’m not sure we’re close enough yet for that to work out in time. South Korea might already be fucked.
You think putting fries in a bag is the same as providing cafe to the elderly? This is some DOGE level planning.
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No, I mean people choose jobs which pay money and are widely available. When jobs to care for the elderly pay well and are widely available relative to other, less necessary work, then people will respond by seeking those jobs. This may require additional training. That’s fine. People will get this training in search if the relatively higher wage. This is basic economics.