I’m not sure that this is the case but I’m not an expert. A recent opinion pieces by Krugman showed survey data that indicated that most people reported doing ok, while also saying the economy was not. Some of this might be related to individuals doing ok but being worried about the prevalence of folks struggling.
One key point is that at the end of 2022, 73% of respondents said that they were doing at least ok financially. So almost three quarters of households aren’t significantly struggling, and yet a majority of people also say the economy isn’t doing well, even when they are.
Now, many people are struggling, but many people are always struggling. The question is why is the proportion of people with a negative sentiment towards the economy out of whack with the number of people reporting doing ok financially.
I dunno; Krugman makes some guesses and the article is a quick read. If you hit a paywall let me know and I’ll make a gift link.
The question is why is the proportion of people with a negative sentiment towards the economy out of whack with the number of people reporting doing ok financially.
Because people want to be doing better than just okay and they want nobody to be struggling. Especially when there’s a few people who are making several orders of magnitude more than those who are “doing okay.”
That’s likely true, but is also always likely true. The question is why are the proportion of responses on individual household stability different than prior years with similar economic measures. It’s something affecting perceptions, or are we missing a measure of the economy? Some l since the study is a long ongoing one done by the fed, and it is 73% doing at least ok, it seems like there is some interesting questions to form for further follow-up.
A couple things might have changed. First, the shared experience of the pandemic may have increased the average level of empathy - outside of some nutjobs. If you’re doing okay but you care about the people around you struggling you won’t think the economy is doing well.
Second, income inequality is now higher than at any time in history. Many Americans would probably put “fairness” as part of the criteria for how they judge the economy. While it’s nice that your wages are keeping up with inflation, your boss’s boss’s boss’s boss’s boss got a seven-figure bonus on top of his eight-figure salary and nine-figure-plus net worth.
And while this will definitely raise the median and mean incomes nationally, people won’t feel like things are improving, leading to data that makes economists shrug.
Then again, until recently economists had to create an entirely new species of hominid to explain their theories so I don’t trust them to have a good idea of how normal people think.
I tend to agree in that I think much of the perception discrepancy is based on the belief that a greater proportion of the country is suffering, or that the suffering happening is preventable. To your point, inequity shapes people’s perception and it’s hard not to feel like big companies and execs are screwing people for a few extra percentage points. The general feeling that people are suffering and it is particularly avoidable compared to the (perception) in the past could explain negative attitudes towards the economy and inflation.
Seeing a Paywall. But that being said, does the article quantify how they are doing financially, or is it a self report on whether they think they are “OK” or not? If so, then are they actually financially OK, or is this a case of “I could be homeless, but I’m currently not, so I’m ok”? If so, there is definitely room for bias in that number. I live in a relatively low col area and cost for everything are up to levels that would definitely mess with those making under 45-50k a year.
If recommend looking at the article since it looks to the survey details. The survey I mentioned was specifically polling household’s and 73% said that their household was doing at least ok. This is a long running study done regularly by the fed, and the proportion of responses doesn’t fit with historical trends. So either something is missing on how we measure perceptions or how we measure the economy. Both lead to interesting questions.
What explains negativity about a good economy? Partisanship is surely a factor: Republicans’ assessment of the current economy roughly matches what it was in June 1980, when unemployment was twice as high and inflation four times as high as they are now. Beyond that, the events of the past few years — not just inflation and higher interest rates but also the disruption Covid caused to everyone’s lives, and perhaps the sense that America is coming apart politically — may have engendered a sourness, an unwillingness to acknowledge good news even when it happens.
Interesting option from the article.
So, it might be more “everything is falling apart or not the same” type of thinking. Could explain it and wouldn’t surprise me.
Everything does seem different after COVID at least. Things don’t feel the same even years after.
I’m not sure that this is the case but I’m not an expert. A recent opinion pieces by Krugman showed survey data that indicated that most people reported doing ok, while also saying the economy was not. Some of this might be related to individuals doing ok but being worried about the prevalence of folks struggling.
Article: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/07/opinion/economy-inflation-negativity.html
One key point is that at the end of 2022, 73% of respondents said that they were doing at least ok financially. So almost three quarters of households aren’t significantly struggling, and yet a majority of people also say the economy isn’t doing well, even when they are.
Now, many people are struggling, but many people are always struggling. The question is why is the proportion of people with a negative sentiment towards the economy out of whack with the number of people reporting doing ok financially.
I dunno; Krugman makes some guesses and the article is a quick read. If you hit a paywall let me know and I’ll make a gift link.
Edit: I’m OK, but Things Are Terrible
Because people want to be doing better than just okay and they want nobody to be struggling. Especially when there’s a few people who are making several orders of magnitude more than those who are “doing okay.”
Gift article: I’m OK, but Things Are Terrible
That’s likely true, but is also always likely true. The question is why are the proportion of responses on individual household stability different than prior years with similar economic measures. It’s something affecting perceptions, or are we missing a measure of the economy? Some l since the study is a long ongoing one done by the fed, and it is 73% doing at least ok, it seems like there is some interesting questions to form for further follow-up.
A couple things might have changed. First, the shared experience of the pandemic may have increased the average level of empathy - outside of some nutjobs. If you’re doing okay but you care about the people around you struggling you won’t think the economy is doing well.
Second, income inequality is now higher than at any time in history. Many Americans would probably put “fairness” as part of the criteria for how they judge the economy. While it’s nice that your wages are keeping up with inflation, your boss’s boss’s boss’s boss’s boss got a seven-figure bonus on top of his eight-figure salary and nine-figure-plus net worth.
And while this will definitely raise the median and mean incomes nationally, people won’t feel like things are improving, leading to data that makes economists shrug.
Then again, until recently economists had to create an entirely new species of hominid to explain their theories so I don’t trust them to have a good idea of how normal people think.
I tend to agree in that I think much of the perception discrepancy is based on the belief that a greater proportion of the country is suffering, or that the suffering happening is preventable. To your point, inequity shapes people’s perception and it’s hard not to feel like big companies and execs are screwing people for a few extra percentage points. The general feeling that people are suffering and it is particularly avoidable compared to the (perception) in the past could explain negative attitudes towards the economy and inflation.
Thanks for the great conversation!
You too! The fediverse is just so friendly :)
Seeing a Paywall. But that being said, does the article quantify how they are doing financially, or is it a self report on whether they think they are “OK” or not? If so, then are they actually financially OK, or is this a case of “I could be homeless, but I’m currently not, so I’m ok”? If so, there is definitely room for bias in that number. I live in a relatively low col area and cost for everything are up to levels that would definitely mess with those making under 45-50k a year.
Gift article: I’m OK, but Things Are Terrible
If recommend looking at the article since it looks to the survey details. The survey I mentioned was specifically polling household’s and 73% said that their household was doing at least ok. This is a long running study done regularly by the fed, and the proportion of responses doesn’t fit with historical trends. So either something is missing on how we measure perceptions or how we measure the economy. Both lead to interesting questions.
Paywall.
But that is very weird if people think they are fine, but somehow others aren’t and the economy isn’t. At least enough to say that.
Gift article: I’m OK, but Things Are Terrible
Yeah, the survey responses seem out of whack compared to historical data. It’s odd, and worth thinking about.
Interesting option from the article.
So, it might be more “everything is falling apart or not the same” type of thinking. Could explain it and wouldn’t surprise me.
Everything does seem different after COVID at least. Things don’t feel the same even years after.