Ethiopia has a better relationship with Russia than Eritrea and because, weirdly, Eritrea and Israel have a fairly good relationship, so my friends enemy is not necessarily my enemy, in this case, but a good contact to sell weapons to while I look for money to find my special military operation, and take my skim for you know, war effort. Also noted is that Ethiopia and Israel are fairly good friends, but I believe Israel operates some military out of Eritrea.
However, Russia will flip weapons to Ethiopia and Eritrea and watch them shoot it out. That being said, Ethiopia is the bigger monster when it comes to equipment because of its licensed manufacturing deal for old Soviet hardware, up to large field guns, I think, but is battle fatigued. Eritrea has far greater manpower of highly trained but poorly motivated and poorly equipped soldiers. Null sum game.
Also, they aren’t going to fight. Aferwerki has enough problems at home, and his own tenure is at risk. Age has caught up and younger upstarts are sensing blood in the water. So while his avenue is to distract with a ports war, conveniently, it is again, a null sum game.
All hail Somaliland. The new powerbroker and infrastructure operator in the region.
I believe short term there is an increase, give that a lot of people are braving stuff they can’t afford to fix. But it stabilizes and reduces in the long term cause as society becomes healthy, and with other health initiatives like healthy eating, exercise and preemptive healthcare, it normalizes with a general reduction in staff numbers.