The criticisms of these polls is broadly correct. But I’m not sure I agree with the conclusion.

Nate Silver was bitterly attacked for weeks before the 2016 election for giving Trump a 20% chance of winning when most other (mainstream) pundits were giving him ~1%. It was bizarre to watch; they might as well have straight up told people not to bother voting.

It was Dem complacency that lost that election and thinkpieces like this do little but encourage more complacency. Trump fans will turn out. Biden-haters will turn out. People who would otherwise be holding their nose and voting for Biden will only turn out if they believe it matters. As they would have in 2016 if they’d known Trump had a realistic chance of winning.

Dems should be thanking biased Republican pollsters because Biden will only win this if a big chunk of eligible voters realise that they’re going to have to hold their nose and vote for him.

It’s not supposed to help you spell the word? It’s a comment on the danger of assuming things.

They vote for nobody. Electoral turnout in the UK plummeted from 1997 on.

Low turnout is a feature (not a bug) of neoliberalism.

If he were said to be omnipotent, this would be an interesting conundrum. But he isn’t so it doesn’t really work?

Why could that possibly be?

(Hint: The answer is in the article you didn’t continue reading the moment you found an excuse for inaction.)

I’m not sure it’s ever legit for the job-hunter to be paying the recruiters. It would normally be the employer.

A % commission doesn’t give that much incentive to find you the very best job as opposed to the first one that will do. You’re paying them a percentage but they’re looking at the return per hour of work they put in. You’ll come under a lot of pressure to accept the first job on offer simply because that job gives them the best return even if it is a smaller cash amount than the best job they could possibly find (if they put the time in).

Their incentives do not align well with your incentives. So best avoided, IMO.

I’m not telling you to lose hope. I’m asking people to avoid the same lazy complacency that handed Trump the presidency in 2016. Trump fans will vote. Dems have got to get the turnout to beat them.

Might be your browser.

Archive link

Your entire post is supporting complacency.

This is so scarily reminiscent of Dem complacency in 2016. Learn from history lest you be doomed to repeat it. Please.

Using the wrong picture is almost as ridiculous as reducing his career to Dumbledore. For shame.

Don’t get complacent.

This was a good start. But then you finished by giving loads of reasons to remain complacent.

Polticial polls have to adjust for turnout and that is extremely difficult to get right. But it is a nailed on guarantee that Trump fans will turn out. Dems should be worried that the polls (in general, not just this one) are very close. Biden’s presidency has been somewhat better than expected from a progressive perspective but is still too beholden to the kind of Dem that lost it in 2016 by appealing solely to rich people instead of the tens of millions of voters with no one to vote for. They will struggle to enthuse the people they need to enthuse and that is showing up in the polls.

Don’t get complacent. Don’t push narratives that encourage complacency.

“90% of content moderators are foreigners. What we have experienced during the process is very hard… spending three months without receiving a salary, in a country that isn’t yours. You cannot pay the rent, you cannot buy food,” Nkuzimana explains. Cori Crider – co-director of Foxglove, a British organization that is supporting the workers in this process – adds that this situation “forces [the content moderators] to continue accepting insecure jobs to remain in [Kenya], despite the serious risk to their mental health.” Moderators have resorted to crowdfunding, so that they can support their families as the legal fight unfolds.

Just highlighting the exploitation of migrant workers here, like much of Twitter’s remaining workforce, apparently. It also reminded me of this story: The fishermen:

On November 22, Joanne circulated a letter among the migrant crew. “I have been made aware the crew members are contacting an outside representative,” it read, possibly referencing a call Quezon made to Stella Maris seeking help for Susada. “I am also aware that crew members have been leaving their port without permission or making our office aware. Sadly the actions by these crew members are beginning to ruin the trust and faith we have placed in our Filipino crew.” It concluded by noting they would make reports to local police and UK immigration authorities “if necessary”.

These people are fucking sick. The whole system that denies people the legal right to work just so they can be more easily exploited is fucking sick.

I’m going to go and punch some walls. Laters.

There’s only so much time in the day. And far too easy to waste it arguing pointless things with random strangers on the internet.

In this case, their motive does not matter. They did you a favour shutting it down before you wasted any more time thinking about something that does not matter at all.

Kbin does Lemmy and Mastadon.

You can follow Lemmy communities on your Mastadon account. But I wouldn’t recommend it. You get a string of out-of-context posts dominating your feed.

Still making no sense whatsoever.

You can follow Lemmy communities from Mastadon but not the other way around. And it doesn’t work well anyway.

You can use Kbin for both Lemmy and Mastadon.

But Mastadon content is not very Lemmy-like so if all you want is the BBC toots, but not a Mastadon account, you might as well bookmark bbc.social and scroll it occasionally.

Ah yes, the massive (pun intended) drawback of hashtags. Unless you actually wanted to follow a mix of news and porn.

Not a single clause in that sentence makes any kind of sense.