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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: August 9th, 2023

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  • China might have a 2 year window coming up where it’s even possible to invade Taiwan. Their military has modernized a lot, but they probably aren’t quite to the point of being able to pull it off. At the same time, they are looking at a demographic cliff from the long term implications of the One Child policy.

    It’s possible this window as already closed. That said, authoritarian regimes have started wars before that were terrible ideas.


  • Eeeeehhh, if you just look at numbers of boats, yes. The US Navy has far, far more experience, though. Drones are also going to change the game in ways we’re only starting to see with the Ukraine War. With that, the answer might be “everyone’s boats are sunk now”.

    China probably couldn’t gain air superiority over Taiwan, and without that, an invasion will fail. That will be true even if the US ends up losing more boats.



  • Discovery Zone, man. I actually feel bad for the kids that never got to experience Discovery Zone. Lasted for like 2 years. It apparently failed because they had a mountain of debt (all those plastic tubes are capital intensive buildouts) and adults had to sit around while their kids played.

    I feel like if you made it work like a gym membership for your kids, and had something for adults to do off to the side, you might be able to make the numbers work.





  • You’ve been experiencing a cult of an idea. The Republican party has transformed into a cult of personality with no clear successor.

    There are cults of personality that have successfully transformed into a cult of ideas. Mormons and Scientology are examples. However, in each case, the person at the center fostered a clear successor, and that successor was able to make it last in the long run by centering around ideas. Scientology still has that successor around (David Miscavige), but there isn’t really a specific person in charge of the LDS. Not in the same way. Their leadership is now interchangeable, but replacing their ideas is a harder sell.

    Trump has no successor, and isn’t interested in fostering one. It’s not JD Vance; nobody respects him, including Trump. It’s not Musk; he made the mistake of trying to be more popular than the boss, and he’s not a natural-born citizen, anyway. It’s not Peter Thiel; he prefers to be the power behind the throne. It’s not any of Trump’s adult children; they’re nothing but spoiled rich kids. It’s not any of the people in his cabinet; they’re all plebes using booze and cocaine to get through the day. It’s not Tucker or Matt Walsh or any of the other right-wing commentators; they’d just eat each other trying to get on top.


  • Oh, no, they’ll devolve into infighting. There won’t be enough shared ideals and actions to sustain Republicans as a political force. There will be fringe groups that linger on for a while. After almost three centuries, there are still two people left claiming the Shaker tradition; that’s a group that forbids sexual relations even for procreation, so you can see how they’d have trouble gaining new members. But they’re not a religious group that anyone really cares about, either. That’s how MAGA will go eventually.

    See also, Knitting Cat Lady, who is a former member of the Children of God cult, then the US Army, and then got a masters in organizational psychology around cults.