Four years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian economy is showing clear signs of structural exhaustion. The contours of a genuine economic endgame are coming into view for Russia. This is the finding of a new Kiel Report published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics.
Then where did their $300 billion war chest drain to dumbass? Already addressed in previous comments. But you’re too illiterate to read.
You just don’t fucking know what “drain” means.
You assume drain must mean drain completely to 0 so Russia completely starves.
The first package was already draining, the next were draining more. Already explained to you by others at the very beginning of the thread, and by me multiple times. That’s how sanctions work.
You certainly think so, yes, that is very obvious. That is your biggest problem really.
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Ok buddy, you have got the spirit, but you really need to tackle topics in your wheelhouse.
The percentage of GDP being above 0% is meaningless. >0% of what?
If the GDP growth rate is >0 then the economy is growing. That would be the amount of additional GDP in relation to existing GDP over a given timeframe or (ΔGDP/GDP)/Δt, usually over one year (Δt = 1 annum) or annualized for ease of comparison. Usually expressed as (ΔGDP/GDP)*100% where the Δt is implied.
here is a more in depth explatation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth
Once you’ve digested that, look at Stimulus and Quantitative Easing
That will explain where the $300 billion of the NWF that weren’t frozen disappeared to. And why the Russian banks now experience such a dire liquidity crisis.
And once you understand all of that you can put 2 and 2 together, and understand WHY the Russian economy had such low growth rates despite such a gargantuan stimulus effort.
There is a massive hole in the economy, through which an enormous amount of money has been draining, which is the aforementioned sanctions. And Russia had to pump almost the entirety of their remaining NWF into the economy and also do an enormous amount of QE to keep the economy at a slightly elevated growth rate. Although since late last year that’s no longer working and the economy has been in a recession.
And we’ve come full circle. (Or rather we will have come full circle once you’ve done your required reading to understand the subject matter)
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So you didn’t read, nor understand. Which shouldn’t be surprising given that having basic understanding of simple math can only mean copying from an LLM to you. You too can learn what the scary triangles mean, it’s not that difficult.
Why did the $300 billion from the NWF plus whatever hundreds of billions of QE drain out of the economy?
You keep ignoring that part for some odd reason.
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Yes, because war spending is still spending, and acts as a stimulus, increasing GDP. The amount of increased spending accounts for a bigger share of GDP than their GDP growth figures account for, so without this extra spending their GDP growth would be negative, due to sanctions.
You’re right, I had my numbers mixed up. The NWF spending accounted only for $70B (5.3T Rubles)
It’s the gutting of the liquidity of Russia’s banks that accounted for the majority of the stimulus and was even higher than the $300B that I remembered, at $446B (36.6T Rubles) by early 2025 https://navigatingrussia.substack.com/p/russias-hidden-war-debt-full-report
This plus the NWF spending accounts for 20% of GDP, or roughly 5% per year over 4 years. Russia’s growth numbers were significantly lower than that at between -2.1% and + 4.3%. So on average, without the stimulus spending not a single year since the beginning of the war would have been positive economic growth.
Admit you don’t know calculus without telling me you don’t know calculus. You write the letter, you don’t spell it out.
And the non-monetary consequences of sanctions, that you also keep ignoring. From your own source:
Which is why the Iskander production figures are fluctuating for example, and are much lower than they would be without sanctions. To come back to your favourite weapon, the ballistic missile.
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wow, living rent free in your head, eh?
don’t worry, I’m just caught up with a thing called “responsibilities”