Even after getting the base back online there’s 2 years minimum before it gets capability to start putting agents back Xinjiang and then there’s 1-2 years before those agents bear fruit, assuming China doesn’t immediately flag and remove them.
The best this can produce is some propaganda against China to use in the west when China start arresting agents and population members who collaborate. It can’t hope to harm China itself, so its best possible function is production of anti-China propaganda.
Xinjiang and Taiwan are the only propaganda in the last 10 years that has had any real impact on views of China. Taiwan is going nowhere and falling off as a tool for impact so they probably believe they really need this or westerners are going to start viewing China favourably.
It will never actually be successful in destabilising China unless somehow they turn massively incompetent and simply do not react to it which I kinda think is unlikely.
We’re going to be combatting Xinjiang propaganda again in 3-5 years if they get back in to Afghanistan though.
I think because of the Gaza genocide they’re desperate to at least both-sides the situation.
The whole world knows they’re guilty of enabling the genocide there, of all but orchestrating it by proxy. But they probably hope to use this situation to rile up the Muslim world against China with the feeling that in 4 years assuming the Gaza situation is “resolved” by the zionoists either completing the genocide or stopping partway and declaring victory, that the Muslim world will be ready to forget yesterday’s news and hated enemy and embrace their new hated enemy China which unlike the US is 100% sanctioned by the gulf state comprador governments and media. And they could be quite right. At the very least it lets them muddy their own involvement by saying “oh that was those Jews, not us, they tricked us, we love Muslims, it was a mistake, we didn’t realize”.
I think it’s mostly wishful thinking on Trump’s part. Afghanistan is just not going to let the US back in, especially with their various business deals with China or how Russia is the only country to officially recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan as the legitimate state.
The Taliban is probably the most reactionary national liberation struggle actor, but it’s still a national liberation struggle in the end.
I agree, I don’t see the Taliban selling out and letting the US military back into Afghanistan. Besides, Russia/China have a lot more to offer than the US does here: (cheap or free) food and military supplies – and all without any demands of a Russian/Chinese military presence inside the country.
I am not too sure. The Taliban probably has a price. There’s something you could give them that would make them say “think of everything we could do with that”. The question is just whether the US is willing to offer something big enough.
I was thinking this was more for military use, have a base west of China that can launch missiles, planes and potentially nukes, or at least threaten to do so, forcing China to spread their defenses thinner. If the new government of Nepal turns out to be a full on US puppet, we’ll probably see them do a similar thing there, allowing US troops into their nation so the US can surround China.
I agree but I dont think its much to be worried about. Frankly messing with Nepal is just gonna piss India off even more, and if there was ever an actual war with China and India on the same side or even neutral to eachother and China fighting the US then a US backed Nepal would fall in hours. And their base in Afghanistan would be destroyed rapidly too.
It shows the US is thinking of a long term containment plan for China, but its like trying to build a picket fence to keep in a Tiger. The more China grows the more obvious itll be this containment shit isnt gonna work.
Even after getting the base back online there’s 2 years minimum before it gets capability to start putting agents back Xinjiang and then there’s 1-2 years before those agents bear fruit, assuming China doesn’t immediately flag and remove them.
The best this can produce is some propaganda against China to use in the west when China start arresting agents and population members who collaborate. It can’t hope to harm China itself, so its best possible function is production of anti-China propaganda.
Xinjiang and Taiwan are the only propaganda in the last 10 years that has had any real impact on views of China. Taiwan is going nowhere and falling off as a tool for impact so they probably believe they really need this or westerners are going to start viewing China favourably.
It will never actually be successful in destabilising China unless somehow they turn massively incompetent and simply do not react to it which I kinda think is unlikely.
We’re going to be combatting Xinjiang propaganda again in 3-5 years if they get back in to Afghanistan though.
I think because of the Gaza genocide they’re desperate to at least both-sides the situation.
The whole world knows they’re guilty of enabling the genocide there, of all but orchestrating it by proxy. But they probably hope to use this situation to rile up the Muslim world against China with the feeling that in 4 years assuming the Gaza situation is “resolved” by the zionoists either completing the genocide or stopping partway and declaring victory, that the Muslim world will be ready to forget yesterday’s news and hated enemy and embrace their new hated enemy China which unlike the US is 100% sanctioned by the gulf state comprador governments and media. And they could be quite right. At the very least it lets them muddy their own involvement by saying “oh that was those Jews, not us, they tricked us, we love Muslims, it was a mistake, we didn’t realize”.
Even at the hight of the #FreeXinjiang stuff, most Muslim majority nations agreed with what the PRC was doing to counter internal terrorism, iirc
I think it’s mostly wishful thinking on Trump’s part. Afghanistan is just not going to let the US back in, especially with their various business deals with China or how Russia is the only country to officially recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan as the legitimate state.
The Taliban is probably the most reactionary national liberation struggle actor, but it’s still a national liberation struggle in the end.
I agree, I don’t see the Taliban selling out and letting the US military back into Afghanistan. Besides, Russia/China have a lot more to offer than the US does here: (cheap or free) food and military supplies – and all without any demands of a Russian/Chinese military presence inside the country.
I am not too sure. The Taliban probably has a price. There’s something you could give them that would make them say “think of everything we could do with that”. The question is just whether the US is willing to offer something big enough.
The smart thing to do is to be open to the US, but also approach Russia and China and use the US’s offer to get a better counteroffer.
I was thinking this was more for military use, have a base west of China that can launch missiles, planes and potentially nukes, or at least threaten to do so, forcing China to spread their defenses thinner. If the new government of Nepal turns out to be a full on US puppet, we’ll probably see them do a similar thing there, allowing US troops into their nation so the US can surround China.
I agree but I dont think its much to be worried about. Frankly messing with Nepal is just gonna piss India off even more, and if there was ever an actual war with China and India on the same side or even neutral to eachother and China fighting the US then a US backed Nepal would fall in hours. And their base in Afghanistan would be destroyed rapidly too.
It shows the US is thinking of a long term containment plan for China, but its like trying to build a picket fence to keep in a Tiger. The more China grows the more obvious itll be this containment shit isnt gonna work.