Image is of protestors burning down the Singha Durbar, the seat of Nepal’s government offices in Kathmandu.

For more on the situation in Nepal, I recommend @MelianPretext@lemmygrad.ml’s comment here.


Following a “anti-corruption” protest movement spurred by a social media ban (but with much deeper roots) in which dozens of protestors were killed by state forces, the government of KP Oli has been ousted, and an interim leader is currently in power as the country prepares for elections. Notably, events have been characterized as “Gen Z protests”, and this leader was decided (at least partially) by a Discord vote. When a non-western government rapidly falls, it’s wise to at least glance in the direction of the United States, and there are almost certainly elements of color revolution here. But, as always, it’s more complicated than simple regime change - Nepal is a deeply troubled economy even as developing countries go.

Vijay Prashad has offered his five theses as to why Nepal’s government fell that goes beyond non-specific terms like “corruption” or “color revolution”:

  1. Despite winning 75% of the seats in parliament in 2017, the various communist parties have failed to unify towards forming a common agenda and solving the problems of the people. When the nominally united communist party split in 2021, infighting and opportunism eventually brought on the rightist politicians we see today.

  2. The Nepalese economy is not successful. Disasters are slow to be ameliorated, education and healthcare is underfunded, and poverty is fairly rampant. There have been significant developments made by the communist parties, such as electrification programs and some poverty reduction, but it has been insufficient.

  3. The petty bourgeois usually come from oppressed Hindu castes, and are frustrated by the domination of upper castes, and so are inspired by India’s BJP. They essentially want a return to monarchy, under the guise of anti-corruption, and despite their relatively small numbers, are powerfully organized.

  4. Of the countries that aren’t tiny islands, Nepal has the highest per capita rate of work migration, due to insufficient employment in Nepal. The jobs that Nepalese citizens receive overseas range from unpleasant to unbearable in both labour and wages, and this has generated rightful suspicion that the government cares more about foreign direct investors than their own citizens overseas.

  5. The government of KP Oli was close to the United States, and India’s Modi has promoted the BJP in Nepal. Both countries have sought to exert influence over Nepal, though Prashad speculates that, if there is indeed a foreign mastermind at work, India is more likely to be the culprit behind these recent protests, in a gambit to use the chaos to promote/install a far right monarchist government.

I agree with Prashad that it seems unlikely that mere electoral changes will result in anything terribly productive, though whatever government emerges will inevitably hoist the banner of anti-corruption to try and legitimize themselves. We have seen the same breakdown of electoralism as a meaningful pathway to solve national problems all across the world, from the superpowers to the poorest states. Until a rupture occurs, greater surveillance, policing, and repression seems guaranteed.


Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • jack [he/him, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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    22 hours ago

    B-21 rollout nears as China boasts it can shoot it down

    The US Air Force has doubled its B-21 Raider test fleet, flying a second prototype in a milestone that signals faster progress toward its next-generation nuclear and conventional strike arm.

    This month, multiple media sources reported that the US Air Force confirmed the maiden flight of its second B-21 stealth bomber, marking a significant milestone in testing the next-generation aircraft.

    My take from the Iran bombing was that these stealth bombers are the most dangerous single weapon the US has because nobody has any capacity to defend against them. @MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net lemme know if that assessment is whack, but it’s certainly how things looked to me following your discussions there.

    But Xi says that he’s got what it takes to down these things:

    As development continues, China has already begun gaming out counters. In November 2023, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that Chinese researchers from Northwestern Polytechnical University in Xian simulated an air battle between the B-21 and its latest fighter and drone technologies, resulting in the aircraft’s shoot-down. The simulation was published in the peer-reviewed journal Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica.

    According to SCMP, a Chinese supersonic stealth fighter with a “conformal skin” capable of detecting the subsonic B-21’s heat and electrical signals, along with a loyal wingman drone, launched an air-to-air hypersonic missile at the B-21.

    From there the article just goes into gaming out actual nuclear war which is fucking terrifying to see discussed so casually. While the cold rationality of the Kissinger-era empire was more effective, it never really seemed like they’d actually nuke someone.

    • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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      18 hours ago

      The stealth bombers are a big advantage for the US because no one has an equivalent, and China’s equivalent is probably a decade away. The B-21 is based on the same concept as the B-2, but smaller so that more can be produced, the US Air Force wants over 100 of them, with some officials wanting 200. It also features upgraded stealth, known as “broadband stealth” to be stealthy from all angles, against radars of varying frequencies, and a further reduction in infrared signature. Lots of work has been done on the engine inlets and exhausts to reduce the radar and infrared signature when viewed from above and behind compared to the B-2. It’s why the inlets look so weird, and there are no clear photos of the exhaust. The “zigzag” rear edge on the B-2 which was implemented to improve low altitude performance has also been removed. Bombers can deliver a payload that fighters simply cannot, as shown by the Iran strikes. This is their huge advantage.

      The challenge with stopping a B-2 or B-21 is not shooting down a single bomber. The bomber just delivers the massive payload, such as two 30 000lb bunker busting bombs, 16 tactical nuclear bombs, or 80 500lb conventional bombs. They don’t go in alone. The challenge is stopping the entire strike package. In Iran the US sent in over 100 aircraft. F-22s sweeping the airspace to take out any aerial threats and providing escort. F-35s with anti radiation missiles and air to air missiles suppressing air defences and escorting the stealth bombers. EA-18Gs doing wide spectrum jamming and suppressing air defences with anti radiation missiles. F-18s with air launched SM-6 missiles that can hit aerial targets from hundreds of miles away. Even some F-16s. That sort of thing. This is almost impossible to stop for most nations.

      The method described here to take out a stealth bomber could work, in isolation. A (likely stealthy) Chinese drone passively detects the B-21 while working with a Chinese stealth aircraft, and calls in a long range missile from said aircraft to try take out the bomber. But in reality, that requires the Chinese drone and aircraft team to detect and get a firing solution on the bomber before the US strike package detects and destroys them. Which is very, very challenging.

    • geikei [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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      18 hours ago

      The airspace over mainland china wont even be meaningfuly contested by the US even in the case of a us-china war in the theater. Iran had like single digit numbers of outdated for Chinese standards AD batteries, no airforce, no ground base radars, no awacs. B21 are formitable but it the iran engagements says nothing regarding how they would fare against actual technological peers employing platforms at equal or greater numbers.

      No b21 bombing campaigns over mainland China arent surviveable. Especially given thatby the time the US will have enough of them to accept idk 30%+ losses for some valuable target, China would be rolling out their six gens , will have widened the gap in radar tech, they will have 1k 5th gens, they will have prob the largest and most capable awac fleet and the air defense network around most valuable targets will be suffocating.

    • BynarsAreOk [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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      17 hours ago

      My take from the Iran bombing was that these stealth bombers are the most dangerous single weapon the US has because nobody has any capacity to defend against them.

      If an American bomber drops a load on one of your cities or important targets and your not sending a nuclear missile to Washington in response then you’ve already lost the plot. China has absolutely nothing to worry, its the other countries without capability to retaliate that do. But in their case who cares about stealth bombers when the full combined force of US plus allies is enough to overwhelm your military in the first place?

      Countries that can defend themselves like all the ones with nukes vs countries that will get bombed regardless if its a stealth bomber or not.

      Stealth is a win more technology. Imagine NATO uses a stealth bomber to attack Russia, what could they realisticaly hit that wouldn’t invite massive retaliation? Russian non-nuclear assets? Russia doesn’t have stealth bombers, yet they must respond somehow and the US knows it. In that scenario using the stealth bombers, inciting a response the Russians can’t match except through escalating towards nuclear response is no different than launching your own nukes in the first place.

      Escalation theory relies on you understanding and respecting your enemies capabilities too, leaving them with no viable response but to escalate is madness. So in reality there are no countries you could use this against except the ones the US already dominates against militarily. All other possible peers(China, India, Russia) in the world also have nukes and other technologies of their own.

      So we have the Iranian example, a country where the US would defeat easily in an air campaign regardless given the incredible air power difference. Yet even then the B-2s did not go in at the very beginning but the opposite, at the very end after Iranian AD was already severely limited.

      Its why stealth is barely above military porn, its a win more tech, perfectly aligned with the US doctrine of imposing fear of an irresistible air campaign aka the 20th century US air doctrine, which is only really a threat to countries without the capability to retaliate.