The number of homicides is falling dramatically nationwide.
In 2024, murders fell by at least 14% across the U.S., according to analyses by the data firm AH Datalytics and the Council on Criminal Justice, a nonpartisan think tank. Official data from the FBI goes only through 2023 but shows similar drops. Early analyses from AH Datalytics suggest the drop will be even bigger in 2025.
I hate titles like this that dangle a fact but don’t reveal it. Clickbait, whether the info is true or not.
Covid is the reason, FYI.
But it’s of course way more complicated than just that, as they go into in the article.
Thank you!
“Mysterious headline that wants you to search this 2 page article with 27 ads for this one word.”
It’s interesting that the same stimulus (COVID) could cause crime to spike in the short term, then decline to below the original level.
I wonder if that could be a general pattern with societal trauma or social change in general—there’s an initial period of disruption, then a re-adaptation that creates an opportunity to resolve long-standing issues with the previous status quo.
I’m wondering if it is just following the downward trend of murders since the 90s, meaning if COVID didn’t happen the murder rate would have also gone down to this level.
They do say the rate of change was greater than the pre-COVID trend, but I don’t know if that means the level is now below where it would be if the pre-COVID trend had continued without interruption.
I wonder if there’s been a rise in arson.
