Not an expert by any stretch, but I would say it is infinitely more likely Iran deploys a nuke now. The US has spent a lot of time over the past 80 years doing whatever it wants to countries it doesn’t like that don’t have nukes, and it leaves alone countries that have them.
If I’m Iran, and I don’t have a nuke, I would be on the phone 24/7 with Putin and Kim about using something they have to stage a “test” detonation on Iranian soil.
Not an expert by any stretch, but I would say it is infinitely more likely Iran deploys a nuke now. The US has spent a lot of time over the past 80 years doing whatever it wants to countries it doesn’t like that don’t have nukes, and it leaves alone countries that have them.
If I’m Iran, and I don’t have a nuke, I would be on the phone 24/7 with Putin and Kim about using something they have to stage a “test” detonation on Iranian soil.