It was not a prediction of victory… it was a 71% chance of winning the electoral college. Said another way, they gave her a 29% chance of losing.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
It was not a prediction of victory… it was a 71% chance of winning the electoral college. Said another way, they gave her a 29% chance of losing.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
I agree… I was simply clarifying that Nate Silver did NOT predict that Hillary would win (nor is he predicting that Trump will win this election), which is a common misunderstanding about probability. For these types of models to be meaningful to the public, there needs to be literacy on what is meant by the percentages given. Really, I’m just reinforcing rodneylives’ point from another angle!
I don’t remember him predicting that she would win. His model (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/) gave her a 71% chance of winning. 71% is a long way from 100%, and the result of that election definitely fit within the model.
That said, you are absolutely correct… we need to keep shining a light on the realities of each of these candidates, because in the light of day Biden is a much better choice than Trump.
Stop j’terrorizing me!
There’s lots of youtube content on this subject… here’s a decent jumping off point, if you’re interested: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Nw6qyyrTeI
I don’t agree with your assessment that I’m not “extending humanity to those who are less than perfect in their response.” It’s fine to want the guy out of office ASAP because he’s terrible. My point was simply that if one wants to maintain their own humanity, one should not celebrate the ailments of their enemies. Or, as Nietzsche said: “Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster.”
The good news is you DON’T need to wish harm on him in order to think he sucks and needs to go away. Yes, he sucks, but that’s irrelevant to his health. Celebrating the declining health of somebody because we don’t like them is a big line to cross on the path to becoming a callous ghoul. We need to be better than that.
These comments… goodness. May we never, ever lose our humanity. Ailment is not to be celebrated. That man has a family who loves him and are worried about him. I hope he gets the treatment he needs and is returned to good health.
Indeed. A wise wizard once said: “It is a curious thing, Harry, but perhaps those who are best suited to power are those who have never sought it.”