You know what I want MS to do? Remove all the extra crap and just be a simple OS. The desktop should use 500MB or so of memory, boot should be a few seconds, and launching programs should be a few seconds. Don’t do any weird caching nonsense, I don’t need tens of GBs of OS nonsense, just give me a simple OS.

I have that w/ Linux. The only value Windows provides is app compatibility. Stop trying to be anything more than that.

Yup, and Linux probably boots faster. On my NVMe w/ full-disk encryption (not through the disk’s microcontroller, through an outside FS), I boot to desktop in like 5 sec or less, and the desktop is fully usable. If I want to launch a program, I type the name and hit enter, and it launches in a couple seconds.

My M3 Mac is a little worse, since it gets confused about launching an app vs looking for a file, and it takes a bit longer to boot (20-30 seconds?).

But my SO’s Windows machine is something else. It takes a minute or two to boot, and after that it takes a minute or two to “settle.” I have no idea what it’s doing, but I generally get up and get a drink or something when my SO asks me to get something pulled up. Why is it so crappy?

Altitude change.

Um, nobody said he was? He does get to be on the money, which is pretty Chad.

What’s one more?

This person ponies.

Yup, there are a lot of bad charities, and the good ones often can’t handle billions in donations. And doing that takes time away from things you enjoy. There’s a reason he didn’t step away from his position until his 90s, he likes what he does.

The basic service is free. There’s an enterprise tier with more features, such as prioritizing IP ranges (e.g. geographical areas the company operates in).

And why take the risk? Just pay Cloudflare to take care of it instead of getting all the expertise in house, surely that’s cheaper, no?

everyone panic selling could spread over to people panic selling everything and trying to get their hands on cold hard cash so their entire life savings dont vanish in an instant, so market wide we could see big drops?

Yeah, that’s basically what happens in a major correction. In fact, stock prices are valid basically the result of how many prior people are buying vs selling; more buyers than sellers causes prices to go up, more sellers than buyers cause prices to go down. Stock prices tend to have momentum precisely because of this (people try to jump on the bandwagon on the way up and jump off on the way down). And that’s also why we tend to see a quick recovery afterward once all the facts come out.

A 20-30% drop is a pretty big deal. It’s not anomalous though. There have been 19 major corrections (over 20% loss) over the past 150 years, meaning it happens every 7-10 years on average (150/19 ~= 7.8 years).

I don’t think this is like the .com or financial markets of the 2000s. But let’s say it is. If I bought at the peak of the .com bubble (March 10, 2000), I would’ve gotten 5.3% annualized growth over that 25 years (so $1k would be $3900-ish), assuming I don’t sell. The impact would be limited long term.

The AI bubble popping wouldn’t be the catastrophy many are making it out to be. I think it’ll be closer to the 2020 correction.

I think Nvidia is overvalued. I don’t think the economy will crash if AI crashes.

Some things aren’t as easy to mitigate, like DDOS attacks. If that’s a legitimate concern, something like Cloudflare makes a ton of sense.

A DDoS is much less likely to target your small site.

Is there a reason you’re tunneling through Cloudflare?

My point is Nvidia isn’t propping up the bubble. If you look at the OpenAI deal, it’s a bit less than their yearly revenue, and the deal is for about the number of GPUs they make in a year, so it’s basically trading GPUs for equity. If anything, Nvidia is profiting from the bubble, not propping it up.

we will all be effected

Oh certainly, but I don’t think it’s any different from other large corrections.

Here’s how I see the major companies in that chart in a crash situation:

• Nvidia - currently trading at 50+ times earnings on AI hype, but 25 is more reasonable, so potential crash of 50%, but probably much less since they’re still king in non-AI compute
• Microsoft - AI is mostly value add, and the stock isn’t too inspired overhyped, so maybe 10% correction?
• OpenAI - would go under and get liquidated
• Oracle - datacenters and AI aren’t a huge part of its business, so probably minimal impact
• the rest - haven’t looked into all of them, but most will be hit hard

It’ll he hit hard, but not nearly as bad as 2000 or 2008. If I look at the S&P 500, only 3 of the top 10 (Nvidia, Google, Meta) would be severely impacted, the rest only seem to dabble. Those 10 make up almost 40% of the S&P 500 and like 30-35% of the total US market. There are more large companies in there as well, but I don’t think most will be screwed like OpenAI. Palantir, for example, likely retains its government contracts for their data alone.

So in an AI bubble scenario, I’m guessing we see a correction of like 20-30%, maybe less depending on the nature of it. I think a more likely scenario is a bear market where investors slowly get tired of poor earnings as the promises of AI fail to manifest. If OpenAI dies, large companies just move to another provider.

And final note, it’s not a bubble because someone made a graphic, they made a graphic describing how it could be a bubble.

I think they’re missing the forest for the trees here. It’s not a bubble because these companies are investing in AI, it’s a bubble because tons of companies are buying into the hype. These companies are merely investing into solutions those companies claim to want. I work for a relatively small non-US company (a few thousand employees, revenue around $1B), and the board recently came to our tech group asking what we’re doing with AI.

This isn’t a handful of companies propping it up, a large chunk of the market is afraid of being left behind and demanding AI tools. All the graphic shows is how large companies are investing to meet the demand. Microsoft used OpenAI products in its offerings, OpenAI is a major Nvidia customer, etc.

I haven’t seen anything specific, but Cloudflare says its “global network” is down (regional networks are fine).

So yeah, maybe DNS like AWS.

Most of them, sure, I’m talking about the ones who actually believe it.

The topic is puddles/lakes, not rivers.

I’m just saying that’s the general level of proof they have. They ignore important effects and focus purely on observations. Basically, the only way to really disprove them is to take them to space, and that’s obviously not happening.

Your body needs some salt, and it sweats out salt. So it needs to be replaced.

aliens

Eh, I think the alien ones are interesting. We know the government is hiding something, we just don’t know what, and if it was aliens, this is how I’d expect them to act. But it could also be a number of other things, and the evidence is usually quickly discredited by experts.

A better example would be something like Sasquatch.