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Cake day: June 9th, 2023

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  • Of course Biden didn’t, but I genuinely think Trump will be way worse. Anyone who thinks Trump, in control of our military as President, wouldn’t be making even worse choices, clearly wasn’t paying attention last round.

    And it’s not just Israel/Palestine. It’s Ukraine/Russia and China/Taiwan. Biden isn’t changing the status quo, but he’s not actively making the situation worse. Trump adores the military and sees himself as a strongman (admittedly not when licking Putin’s boot), and is going to immediately want to flex the military. He’ll pull Ukraine support entirely. He’ll antagonize Iran or maybe actively bomb Hamas targets in Palestine. He’ll antagonize China or maybe recognize Taiwan’s independence. That would be a disaster.

    I want change. I want a better system. I desperately want us to take our hands off the lever. But that change needs to be better and lasting change. It needs to be done such that when enough Democrats take their hands off the lever, the lever does get pulled hard in Republican’s favor. I will actively pull the lever in the “kill people” direction because if we let go at all it will be yanked in the “kill everyone” direction, and when it comes to ideals versus practicality, I go with what actually results in less harm.

    I get the ideal, but the practicality of American politics and the electoral college is just shitty. I’m genuinely curious what you think would happen in 2024 if people don’t vote Biden? I’m assuming you’re advocating for the Green Party, whoever their candidate ends up being. Trump doesn’t need huge margins to win. Biden had over 6 million more votes but the margins in many key swing states were less than 25,000 votes. Anyone farther left of Biden isn’t pulling votes from Trump, they’re pulling votes from Biden, and when the margin is that small, it makes all the difference. A Green candidate taking even 3% of a given state is enough to give it to Trump.

    I believe enough change from the inside is possible that it can invalidate the lever. There are progressives within the Dems, that could get us to a point where there’s no electoral college, or a voting system that isn’t first-past-the-post. States are independently joining the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. Once such systems are in place, then it doesn’t matter how hard the Republicans pull the lever, we have a bunch of working levers. But we’ll never get to that point in the first place if the Republicans get to pull the lever all the way. The party that actively wants to destroy our democracy is not gonna give us a second chance at any lever if we let them pull this one further.


  • You have roughly equal amounts of people pulling the lever in the “kill one person” direction and the “kill many people” direction.

    The only people interested in pulling a lever that adds a third rail are the “kill one person” crowd. The moment enough of them let go, the lever goes in the “kill many people” direction because that crowd has no interest in a third rail, they quite like the “kill many people” option. You’ll never get enough people to join the third option from both crowds simultaneously. No third party has seen any real form of success in nearly 200 years within the current system. Changing the system is necessary but taking out hands off the lever is a disaster.


  • Democrats can be really dumb sometimes. Too many would rather stick to idealistic principles because at least then when they lose they can claim the high road and a persecution complex.

    Maybe it’s not much of a “complex” when that persecution actually then happens (like the Dobbs decision), but if Democrats would just shut up and vote with the best option available instead of not voting at all, maybe we’d win more. Trump wouldn’t have been elected in 2016 if Democrats had turned out in the same numbers they did in 2008 but instead 4 million Dems just didn’t show up.

    If Democrats won more, we could at least start to implement changes like Instant-Runoff Voting or doing away with the Electoral College. Republicans don’t want any of those changes, because they know it weakens their position. But so many liberals just refuse to vote because there’s no “good” option and refuse to vote for the option that even enables a “good” choice, while any conservative will do anything they can to vote for anyone willing to put an ® next to their name. It’s so fucking juvenile and I’m still ashamed to admit I once used to believe it too.



  • He basically was willing to discuss all the areas where the Israelis were making concessions. He wasn’t willing to discuss any of the areas where the Palestinians were supposed to make concessions. So it seemed like he had just said no.

    But what I subsequently learned - about 18 months ago, I had a dinner with a former Palestinian negotiator who’d been part of the delegation. He said the whole Palestinian delegation had decided among themselves they should accept it. They went back to Arafat, and Arafat said no. I subsequently heard from another Palestinian on that delegation who said Arafat thought he could still do a better deal under Bush because he thought maybe Bush will be even more forthcoming.

    Holy shit, so Arafat alone basically blew the best chance we had.

    Jerusalem should just be made a UN protectorate or independent third city-state at this point as part of a two-state solution (like the Vatican).

    And yeah, I know everyone will hate that idea, but hey, at least then everyone will hate the idea.


  • I don’t know it’s unequal. Hamas clearly has little regard for Palestinian or Israeli civilians. Their MO for two decades has been rocket attacks on Israeli civilians. And if they cared about their own civilians they wouldn’t use hospitals and schools as artillery bases. They know Israel doesn’t care either though and will bomb them anyway, which is basically what Hamas is banking on.

    Both forces care little for civilians. The difference is when Israel doesn’t care it’s a 500 lb bomb through a school. When Hamas doesn’t care it’s a 40lb rocket that probably gets shot down by the Iron Dome anyway.

    Equal disregard for civilian life on both sides. Unequal force willing to be exerted by one side.




  • For at least a couple more years we will. It took us a bit to set up our system. Probably will take you a couple as well. Takes time to build a distribution network too, since you can’t really import it from growers in other states, so for a while ours will probably be cheaper.

    But it’s still a huge win and it’s better for us all to have more states legalize it. And in the meantime we can just both suck Indiana dry of marijuana money.



  • There’s a theory that Taiwan could achieve mass destruction with just regular cruise missiles, no need for actual WMDs.

    The destruction of Three Gorges Dam would kill millions of people from the resulting flood. Be a tough target and air defense would be a nightmare, but it is still within Taiwan’s cruise missile range.

    There’s been no acknowledgement ever of this plan, but it’s pretty obvious.




  • There’s a power discrepancy now, but there wasn’t always.

    By this analogy, Palestine is a drunk 17 year old, who along with a bunch of 20-something friends jumped one another kid when he just turned 18. Except the 18 year old won the fight and the older pals of the original drunk kid have backed off. Beaten to shit, the 17 year old keeps trying to swing at the 18 year old, who continues just kicking him while he’s down and everyone is looking on in horror but unwilling to jump back in the fight.

    The fact they went 1 v 8 probably contributes a lot to Israel’s absolute unwillingness to not put themselves in a position where they are less powerful.




  • Both Jews and Palestinians have claims to the area as “their own land.”

    You may note that when Russia invaded Crimea, the West did basically fuck all about it. Russia invaded it and so Russia has kept it. You wanna play that argument, then Israel gets to keep everything they got in '48 and '67.

    If you’re arguing it’s Russia’s to take “back” because Crimea is part of Ukraine which used to be part of the Soviet Union, that’s also not a great argument. Ukraine’s borders were accepted and recognized internationally. By that token you could argue Palestine should be able to “take back” all of their territory to the '48 borders, and Israel was content with that border at the time. The Arab nations weren’t happy with that in the first place though, which is why they tried to wipe out Israel.

    So maybe you argue that it’s the pre-1948 border they should be able to “take back,” and it should all just be one state, like Mandatory Palestine as it was under British Rule. Except neither side really wants a one-state solution and obviously the elimination of the entire Jewish people is not a good one.

    You can keep going farther back and claim that it was all Ottomans anyway so only those who have really lived there since the 7th Century have a claim (ie. Palestinians). Of course they’re only there because of the Rashidun Caliphate, so why stop there? If we push back farther we should really give the region to the Greeks. If they pass we can give it to the Italians, and if they pass, oh look, hey, ethnic Jews have a claim to the area before even Rome showed up.

    Now obviously, the modern Israeli government is tremendously overreacting and the West should sanction them to hell until they return to the table for a two-state solution (or any solution both sides agree on), Netanyahu is gone, and Palestinians are given their own recognized state. Palestinians need support, aid, and the backing of the globe to push for their rights as a country. But Hamas is not necessarily going to get them that either.


    1. Unarmed protest is always an option. It’s a harder option, but it is an option.

    2. Hamas could keep their weapons, and target actual military targets in Gaza.

    3. Israel already withdrew from Gaza in '06, but Hamas is happy to launch rockets at civilian targets in Israel.

    4. Hamas could launch rockets at civilian targets in Israel from non-civilian locations in Gaza, instead of using schools and hospitals.

    Hamas has consistently picked the most hostile options because Hamas doesn’t just want a free Palestine, Hamas wants the destruction of Israel and rejects any territory existing as an Israeli state. Gaza isn’t even fully isolated by Israel, but Egypt wants nothing to do with Hamas either.

    I’m not even saying armed resistance is wrong, but what Hamas does is. And yes, Israel’s government is also just as wrong, if not more so.