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Cake day: June 15th, 2023

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  • The Polymarket prediction markets gives odds for who will win the presidential election and who will win the democratic nominee. We can compare the odds of each candidate and use Bayes Theorem to determine their chances of winning the presidency if they secure the DNC nomination.

    Here’s the results as of posting this comment:

    Joe Biden: 27% Kamala Harris: 50% Michelle Obama: 100% Gavin Newsom: 66% Other: 50%

    Obviously this doesn’t work perfectly (the Michelle Obama example especially is bizarre), but there is over $300M behind these numbers so people seem to think they’re at least somewhat accurate.

    TLDR: there is a lot of money that thinks Joe Biden is one of the worst options












  • It’s not the simple unfortunately, because of 2 factors:

    1. Our boomers are a very large generation, larger than the millenials

    2. Life expectancy has increased so people live much longer (with high medical costs)

    In the 70s - 2000s we had a large generation of in their working years paying for a small generation’s 5-10 year retirement

    Now, we have a small generation in their working years paying for a large generation 15-25 year retirement

    And this is not something we can solve by just “taxing the rich”. The numbers are so huge that taxing Canada’s richest people is a drop in the bucket



  • This is a bit of a fallacy. In a normal market, the rent for a home is less than the costs of home ownership (mortgage + maintenance + taxes) and that saved money can be used to purchase other assets.

    Until the real estate mania of the last few years, if you followed this strategy, you would not be any worse off than the person who bought their home.

    I personally would much rather have equity in more fungible assets than a home. Owning a home ties you to a specific location, and can’t easily be sold in an emergency. Plus it’s not a very diverse portfolio if most of you wealth is in a single property