Ben Matthews

  • New here on lemmy, will add more info later …
  • Also on mdon: @benjhm@scicomm.xyz
  • Try my interactive climate / futures model: SWIM
  • 0 Posts
  • 58 Comments
Joined 11 months ago
cake
Cake day: September 15th, 2023

help-circle












  • Indeed, as I mentioned in my main comment

    Some of the ‘mandates’ are far too easily implemented.

    At least that one requires a ‘parliament majority’ - otoh big groups are not in that parliament at all… Actually ‘ungrowth’ in the north may just happen anyway, slowly, for demographic reasons.
    Maybe this type of game could provide a structure to help people to debate factors, if could vary (packages of) assumptions… ?
    As it is, might encourage some to wait for a revolution rather than engaging current options.




  • Sure, but this is also a real game we need to win (well, maybe not <1C in that timeframe) , and we only get one chance to play. This example helps people learn, but there are things to adjust.
    Another (I didn’t mention above) is that construction (including new energy, ‘green’ cities etc.) takes massive time, energy, materials - it’s not clear that’s sufficiently taken into account, and likewise not by real “socialist” planners.



  • OK, so I tried this, able to win on the second round. :-)
    First time you risk to do some things too early, others you must do early, but I won’t spoil the challenge by giving details.
    Good emphasis on land-use limitations.

    Concept is nicer than ‘fate of the world’ which was rather similar (and even fotw told me their idea was partly inspired by an idea on my website about 23 years ago). Both this and fotw based on ‘cards’, while prefer to adjust levers gradually, and see graphs move in real-time.
    (btw going back even further, does anybody remember ‘lincity’ )?

    Some things confusing - e.g. you adjust percentages not totals, but totals change, which hits limits in not-obvious ways. No mention of space-heating challenge eg heat-pumps (suggests made in tropics?), no modal-shift in transport (except inside cities). I’d like to see whether the numbers reflect current emissions of China, and Arabia (I doubt it, doesn’t fit the ‘south is good’ narrative). Overall I suspect that the calculations are too optimistic, but can’t say more without detailed plots of changes over time, or a view of the engine code.

    But biggest unrealities:

    • We don’t have such a scenario - there is no global planner - “god games” are too easy concept.
    • The fraction of contrarians is larger (than the 3 groups I couldn’t satisfy in this game), maybe increasing (?).
    • Some of the ‘mandates’ are far too easily implemented.

    I ponder how to design a game which is more realistic in these respects.
    Having said that, I think the ‘magic card’ has some merits, if everybody would play, maybe that helps tip the balance.



  • To make the most of the wind they’d need a flexible route adapting to the weather forecast (about 5 days in advance), a deal with rail companies to complete journeys along coasts would help make that doable.
    Indeed the fences along railways are an issue, but likewise for big roads, eco-bridges with trees can help (there are examples eg in netherlands iirc).
    An interplanetary drone to harvest gas for gentle wind-driven balloons back on earth, interesting combination of tech… but first priority I guess would be to keep the He on our planet (avoid leaks -> lost due to escape velocity).