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Cake day: July 2nd, 2023

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  • “La stabilité” voulue par le président, c’est “la capacité pour un gouvernement à ne pas tomber à la première motion de censure déposée”, insiste-t-on à l’Élysée.

    La stabilité pour ne pas tomber à la première motion de censure quand le parti présidentiel a pas de majorité absolue ? Elle est assurée quand le président nomme un premier ministre hors de son parti et dit à son parti de ne pas voter contre son choix. Rien de plus évident.

    Par exemple si il choisi à l’extrême droite et dit à son parti de se taire, aucune motion de censure ne passera, parce que son camp + le RN font plus de 50%. C’est super simple et c’est comme ça que c’est censé marcher quand il y a pas de majorité. Aucune justification à prétendre que c’est pas stable.

    Le calcul est identique s’il choisi à gauche, car il a toujours la majorité. Sauf que ça n’arrivera pas, il sait qu’il peut dire à son parti de ne pas voter contre et que ça suffira, mais il le fera pas. Il préfère prétendre que la gauche est instable.

    S’il choisi dans son camp parmi les ex PS en prétendant que le PS acceptera, il s’en fout parce que le RN ne soutiendra pas de motion de censure donc ça passera même sans la gauche. Donc on sait déjà ce qu’il entend par stabilité même s’il peut la créer comme il veut sa stabilité.

    Le seul risque qu’il court c’est de convaincre le RN de ne rien faire. Si le RN dit non, il sera forcé de prendre à gauche (et encore, en supposant qu’il ne vire pas RN), mais le RN ne dira pas non.









  • The link quotes him calling the Kiev regime a putsch, but that was back in 2014, and that was in fact a revolution. It’s not about Zelensky, but he does give all the current talking points (neonazis in Kiev, NATO provocations, Russia can’t have NATO at their doorstep…). BTW no one did anything about Russia stealing Crimea, either, everyone was still trying to justify not doing anything.

    That was 10 years ago and he has been (very) slowly toning it down: when making the left alliance a few weeks ago, he finally relented on allowing weapons to be sent to Ukraine because the rest of the left made him, there’s still hope he’ll give up the anti-NATO talk… eventually. If he makes it to the government, when someone asks him about Russia bombing children’s hospitals, at some point he’ll have nowhere to run because he doesn’t actually support that. He shouts and curses quite violently at journalists who help out the far right, but on serious subjects in serious interviews, he actually has to be reasonable (and he is). On the last presidential elections, when he showed up to the round 1 left parties debates, he was all proper and serious and making his points properly and sensibly - and then he lost on round 1 and the next day in the street, he screamed his head off at the first journalist who put a microphone in his face.

    Oh, and over this side of the world, no one claims Russia is socialist. But leftists do get mad at the EU and NATO for crushing the farmer class and playing the capitalist hand, that’s what that is about.







  • The center left hasn’t been listening much for a few decades, which is why the far right has been steadily rising from a 20% ceiling to this 35% ceiling just now. But the alliance that won today is not center left - it has some legit left. You can tell because the center and the media have been working overtime to prop up the most divisive figure as Literaly Worse Than Hitler that needs to be stopped at all cost, even by electing literal Nazis.

    But this new left is also an alliance, and the current fear is that some of them will jump ship to side with the center right when we all realize that we really can’t form a government, because no one has an absolute majority. Even with those potential defections, the center will likely still not get a majority back. Worst case scenario is the left breaks, no one can govern, and Macron uses an obscure law to take over 100%, best case scenario the left holds and Macron can’t even do that and we have a chance of getting at least SOME improvement.