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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: July 6th, 2023

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  • Impeachment requires 2/3 of the senate voting to convict. The only way that will happen is for one party to have 67 senate seats, or for members of both parties to vote to convict.

    For the Dems to get to 67 senate seats in the next midterm election would require winning every single race, The odds of that are just slightly more than 0, you’d be better off playing the lottery.

    It’s slightly less implausible that the Democrats could win most of the seats up for election in a large backlash against Trump and the Republicans, and that in that scenario you could get the remaining votes from Republicans who view the Trump administration as a sinking ship that they don’t want to go down with. Trump’s second impeachment was as close as we’ve seen to that kind of scenario.

    Even then, it’s a lot easier to imagine Republicans going along with an impeachment of Trump (who will almost certainly be gone soon anyway) than it is for them to remove members of the Supreme Court whose positions could affect the balance of power for decades. About the only way I can see it happening (even in this extreme scenario) is if they went after Thomas and/or Alito, because they are the oldest members currently on the court and that would give Trump the opportunity to appoint two new justices.

    So, realistically, any (legal) accountability is at least two elections away. And even then, it’s more plausible that it would come from a new administration pursuing criminal charges against the fascists and their enablers than it would be through impeachment.