🤞

I’m not voting 3rd party this election, and I can find my own to join when it’s advantageous to do so.

The anti-Ukraine tankies?

Fuck you. Anyone who opposes resisting fascism shouldn’t call themselves either of those things.

I’ve decided I’m not re-joining the DSA.

How will they summon the fox devil?

Russia needs lessons in how to bully fishermen. They’ve already got “pretending a place belongs to you” in a bag, so there’s nothing else China can teach them.

Edit: lmao stay mad, tankies.

And yet you failed to provide it. Again.

Why would I go on a wild goose chase to find something that I’m pretty sure you’re making up?

“Hey, I can’t find this.”

“Finding it is so easy, look!” [Links to a different thing instead]

At this point, I’m assuming that you made it up and that’s why you didn’t send me a link.

As for what you did link, the average shows Trump less than 2% ahead, and I don’t see an easy breakdown of demographic information. (Not surprising, given that it’s an aggregation of many polls, but it still doesn’t meet my minimum specifications.) Furthermore, the data points being averaged are all over the place. As I said before, the polls showing Biden behind a significant ammount show younger voters favoring Trump, which strikes me as an obvious indicator of failure in the methodology. If this failure in methods is as pervasive as I suspect, then the average is going to skew far in Trump’s favor. But again, I have no way of verifying that.

What I’m seeing, is a lot of transparent excuses not to justify the beliefs that you keep criticizing me for not having.

think Biden is too old

That’s true, and I agree; people his age should not be allowed to run for president. However, that is entirely irrelevant to the question. At this moment the main thing I care about is Trump losing the election. I don’t care who wins, so long as it isn’t someone like Trump. I have no reason to believe replacing Biden will help with either that goal or any ancillary goals, as well as some suspicion that both will be hindered by it. No one else can have an incumbents advantage and you know the DNC isn’t going to put a forth progressive. AOC and Bernie are throwing their weight behind Biden, and a large part of the establishment is turning on him. Take a step back, and ask why that is. It’s weird right? I don’t know what’s happening, but the information available to me suggests that it’s better for Biden to stay in the race, and so that’s what I’m advocating for. Now please provide data to change my mind or fuck off.

Edit: also, I’m not sure how you think I’m in an echo chamber when people keep screaming at me that I’m wrong, and then when I ask for evidence of how I’m wrong, no one provides anything of substance.

I can’t verify this. The closest I could find is “who do you think won the debate, regardless of who you support?” https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2024/06/28/2bc47/2

Removed by mod

Removed by mod

You don’t understand how evidence and implications work, do you?

Find me a poll that shows Biden losing by more than the margin of error. If the demographic data shows 18 to 20-somethings supporting Trump, it doesn’t count.

Do that, and I’ll consider the possibility that Biden isn’t likely to win.

Edit: someone replied with a transcription of a poll, refused to link it, insulted me, linked an entirely different page, and then wrote an entire essay instead of just giving me the link. My criteria for evidence for this claim that Biden is probably going to lose is incredibly low, and a person has failed to fulfill it for most of a day and counting. I invite everyone to shut the fuck up because it’s clearly bullshit. Biden isn’t losing, and I won’t change my mind unless I have even half-descent evidence of it.

Good.

The slip-ups are not a big deal, and people should stop pretending otherwise. “He made 2 gaffs in one night! Oh my God! Only senile people do that source:trust me, bro.”

Yeah, that’s part of why I’m so suspicious of this massive “Biden needs to be replaced” push. We’re not getting better policy out of it, and I seriously doubt it’ll hurt Trump’s odds at re-election, so why is everyone so keen on it at this stage? The time to replace him was months ago.

I already told you; I’m an unapologetic nerd.

High bar.