Critique of nate silver book. Rather good on deficiencies, rather lacking on the fact that betting requires events to happen. You can maximize expected value all you want, you still choose where and when you do it and frequently you can change the event by yourself, instead of being passive observer.
There is a subculture of guys online who will hound you to make money bets on whether something (AI usually) will work out when you criticize it. I think this practice traces back to Taleb’s 2018 book Skin in the Game but it might go earlier than that.
Also nate looks like absolute shit in that header photo lmao great choice
its just such a weird thing, i perfectly well understand stonk traders and gamblers, but in casual life or conversation? Its like “the man becomes the most wretched () of independent economic agents seeking to maximize its marginal value” nightmare fuel. Im bullshitting about sports, mate, not making economic decisions.
To say nothing of politics, where realms of achievable are entirely decided elsewhere.
in nate silver lingo, its river betting on occurrences in village. There are people there, they are doing stuff and making decisions, not floating around like a particle in water
