My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.
preamble
For the weekend of August 1-2, Trump had once again promised major strikes on Iran, which would have included crossing the critical red line of striking their energy infrastructure. In response, Iran once again essentially promised to end the possibility of modern civilization as we know it throughout much of the Gulf States and, to a certain extent, the Zionist entity, with the economic impacts radiating outwards around the world from there. The frustrating part about these threats from Trump is that while he’s reneged on them before, the consequences of them actually occurring are so dire that it’s difficult to ignore them; rolling a dice with even a 5% chance for complete catastrophe will always be nerve-wracking.
Anyway, as we all know, these strikes did not occur, with the excuse this time being much the same as the previous times: our regional allies begged us not to (potentially true) and Iran called us and said they were willing to negotiate/surrender (untrue). The point of these threat displays is at least twofold: first, to see if Iran is genuinely going to flinch, or, at least, if internal elements that may or may not exist will be spooked into action against the IRGC; and second, to manipulate oil prices downwards by creating constant cycles of “relief” out of an otherwise relatively constant downward trend as Hormuz stays closed and oil reserves continue to ebb. I do say “relatively”, of course, given that Ansarallah now appears to be delivering a boot up the ass of Saudi Arabia by taking offline quite a lot of its refinery infrastructure.
It is into this situation that Ukraine seems to want in. For those out of the loop, the situation over in Ukraine has largely the same overall attritional dynamics as previous years, but with a few added wrinkles. Ukraine started striking Russian infrastructure a while ago, and while their effectiveness is hotly debated and I don’t want to dismiss them as totally ineffectual, it’s clear that the psychological effects - such as they are - are greater than the material effects. Russia’s retaliation strikes have been considerably more impactful, including strikes on Ukrainian Black Sea ports and vessels, and a campaign explicitly against gas stations across Ukraine, as well as some rather impressive and disruptive explosions at Ukrainian military fairs and production sites. Zelensky has admitted publicly that they are now basically out of Patriot missiles and that Russian missiles are now landing entirely unopposed (beforehand, they were just landing largely unopposed, given the lackluster performance of Western air defences in general). He seems to have considered a possible way out: linking together the Ukraine and Iran Wars to a united front against Russia and Iran, which would then grant Ukraine more munitions to keep fighting on.
Now, for all the fear I’ve seen of this occurring (and, don’t get me wrong, the US and Russia being in non-proxy, direct conflict is a genuinely frightening prospect for continued life on Earth) how linking together two wars which the West is quite decisively losing into a single war would help at all is beyond me. At this moment, at least, US military planners appear to agree with me. Ukraine hit a Caspian Sea vessel going to Iran a while ago, but then seems to have quickly apologised after being given a stern talking to by the US. This shows just how willing the US is to grant Ukraine more aid, as their own interceptor stockpile is running very low due to Iranian strikes. One would almost feel sympathy for Zelensky if is wasn’t for… well, everything that’s happened. The path of Ngô Đình Diệm is a tough one to walk.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
The Guardian - IDF says it has begun ‘targeted strikes’ in southern Lebanon. The IDF has issued a brief update saying it has begun “targeted strikes” in southern Lebanon, which it said were in response to Hezbollah breaching the ceasefire. It came shortly after the IDF ordered people to flee the village of Mansouri (see previous post). We will bring you more as we get it.
Previous post
IDF issues order for people to flee homes in southern Lebanon village. The Israeli military has issued a warning for people in the southern Lebanese village of Mansouri to flee their homes. It is the first time in more than a month that the military has issued such an order ahead of an imminent strike. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has ordered people to immediately leave their homes and move at least 1km north of the village, which is located inside an area of southern Lebanon occupied by the Israeli military.
It claimed Hezbollah has breached the ceasefire agreement signed by Israel and Lebanon in June, compelling the IDF to “act forcefully against it”. Since the start of the war in March, the IDF has repeatedly ordered people to leave their homes in several towns and villages in southern Lebanon and head north, including after the ceasefire was announced. The war has displaced more than one million people, many of whom have been forced to flee multiple times.
Today’s warning came as the UN said more than 800,000 people displaced by war have begun returning to their homes, while officials from Lebanon and Israel continued US-sponsored talks in Rome aimed at ending the fighting.
Why are Iranian ballistic missiles equipped with Maneuverable Re-entry Vehicles (MaRVs) significantly more accurate over longer ranges now? (Hitting targets over 1000km range). One answer could be the integration of active Controlled Pattern Reception Antennas (CPRAs) into the MaRV of these long range ballistic missiles, to protect against GNSS (Global Satellite Navigation System) jamming and spoofing.
Here you can see a 4 element CPRA on a Kheibar Shekan MaRV
I’ve added an annoying red square around the 4 element CPRA, and an annoying green square around the visible element.
Very interested on exactly which satellites Iran is using for GNSS/which satellites these active antennas are receiving signals from.
How many thousand times is Trump going to say “We won. They are destroyed” and/or “We’re about to get a good deal. Best deal. Excellent deal.” and/or “We are going to destroy them.”
AP - Trump says deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz could come as early as Wednesday
Armed man arrested near Trump’s golf course ahead of president’s visit https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c20jp3mp7lyo
seems like another Ryan Routh maybe
Brazil has withdrawn its ambassador from Argentina, officially downgrading diplomatic relations between the two countries. On Tuesday, August 4, 2026, the Brazilian government decided not to send Ambassador Julio Glinternick Bitelli back to Buenos Aires. - CNN
NEW ALL-TIME HIGH: Kshama Sawant has a 67% chance to advance in the WA-09 primary
🚨TROTSKYIST REVOLUTION IN PROGRESS IN WASHINGTON🚨
El-Sayed has an early lead (52.7% at 17.2% in) in the Michigan senate primary. He’s touted as a “progressive” and he sounds good on Israel, but…
El-Sayed generally opposes United States military aid to foreign countries, but has cited U.S. actions during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and in Serbia during the 1990s as examples of beneficial U.S. intervention.
“Yeah US military actions are bad 90% of the time, but them supporting Ukrainian Nazis and bombing Serbian civilians was cool and good actually.”
Maybe a ship on fire in the SoH, not sure yet.
Explosions and/or rocket launches were heard in Yemen’s capital (Sanaa), explosions heard in Dubai (Jebel Ali industrial area).
[edit]
Smoke column in Dubai. Reportedly at Jebel Ali. Still unconfirmed what the cause is.
MoA has a great piece explaining how China is not falling for the US AI bubble:
There is also a difference in attitude. Where U.S. financiers like Larry Ellison are striving for some god-like general artificial intelligence, the Chinese (and some European) developers and financiers are much more interested in solving real world (industry) problems.
A robot to fill the dish washer can operate sufficiently without being able to solve mathematical conjectures. Moreover its internal AI model will have to run on a local GPU and not inside some far away data center.
An abundance of resources has allowed U.S. model developers to build huge, very capable, but enormously expensive general AI models. Those companies have yet to find use cases that will pay for the cost of running these models.
Instead of reaching for the stars, like U.S. companies do, the Chinese are out to solve down-to-earth problems.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/08/its-the-math-how-china-is-avoiding-the-ai-bubble.html
Al Jazeera - Israel builds bases deeper inside southern Lebanon: Israeli media. The Israeli military is establishing a deeper and potentially long-term presence in southern Lebanon, according to satellite images, field visits and information obtained by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz. Haaretz said Israeli forces control about 602 square kilometres of Lebanese territory, extending up to 12km from the border in some areas. The military has reportedly built at least seven new bases and 32km of logistical roads.
A senior Israeli officer said troops had been told to prepare for a stay of up to a year. New bases have been established in areas including Khiam and Maroun al-Ras, where most buildings have been destroyed. The expansion comes despite a US-brokered agreement providing for a gradual Israeli withdrawal as the Lebanese army reasserts control and Hezbollah is disarmed.
Russian forces have eliminated Kiev regime drone operators in Mali that aided the West’s terrorist proxies:
Ukrainian FPV drone operators are fighting on the side of terrorists in Mali and are being targeted by strikes from Russia’s Africa Corps aviation, a helicopter pilot with the callsign Krym (Crimea) told TASS.
“FPV drone operators are mostly foreign experts from Ukraine. This scourge of war has now spread to Mali. We have not captured UAV operators. If we found a launch site, we carried out an airstrike, followed only by objective verification of the target’s elimination, the place where the operators were located,” the pilot said.
Al Jazeera - Oil spill from grounded tanker off Oman expands dramatically. An oil spill from the grounded tanker Caroline Bezengi off Oman has expanded to about 150sq km (57.9sq miles), according to Greenpeace Germany and satellite images reviewed by AP. Oil has reached parts of Qabliyah Island, which lies within a protected marine area home to endangered seabirds and the Arabian Sea humpback whale.
The tanker, estimated to have carried more than 800,000 barrels of crude, has been stranded since June. It is sanctioned by the UK, EU, Canada and Switzerland over alleged links to Russian oil exports. Environmental experts warned that the vessel may be sinking deeper, with no visible signs of a major response operation.
The U.S. military has depleted nearly 80% of its THAAD missile interceptors in the war with Iran, sources tell CNN The U.S. has also used up roughly half of its Patriot interceptor missiles, seriously limiting the capability to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles fired at Gulf states and Israel. The Pentagon has warned President Trump repeatedly in recent weeks that the low stockpiles could carry serious consequences in any new round of prolonged fighting with Iran.
- Middle East Spectator
https://xcancel.com/SU_57R/status/2084706369236811951
🇷🇺🇺🇦 The Ukrainian MOD reports that Russia set a record for glide bombs dropped at over 8,300 for the month of July.
https://xcancel.com/drnghorrorshow/status/2084747624410661335
~11 FAB per hour across the front.
here’s a graph of the progress of the monthly rate up to a couple months ago, from https://archive.ph/xSvY1
this is the kind of shit the US was supposed to be doing to Iran - really weird to be in the timeline where Russia manages to maintain a higher sortie rate than the US (it helps that the Russians aren’t having to sustain their logistics a continent away to be fair, but still - don’t try to be the global hegemon if you can’t manage that! almost as if running a massive empire is actually kinda really fucking expensive!)
