A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like “in Minecraft”) and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of the Jazan refinery complex in southwestern Saudi Arabia, near the Yemeni border. The big squares depict large thermal signatures - i.e. giant fires caused by missile strikes.


My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.

preamble

As many predicted quite early on in this conflict, the US simply does not have the stockpiles nor production lines to maintain the firing rates we saw in March and April. There’s at least five strictly military problems:

  1. Not enough interceptors to shoot down Iranian missiles, and many missiles get through regardless. This includes a dearth of interceptors in the Zionist entity proper.

  2. Not enough stand-off munitions to cause a real breakdown of Iran’s military and society. There’s enough left in the submarines and in whatever stockpiles they have mustered to give one last very serious barrage before they’re just completely out (unless they start taking all their missiles out of the Pacific and Europe), but even if this is done, this shock and awe failed the first time around, and the missile cities have proven impregnable to Western military technology.

  3. Not enough penetration of Iranian airspace to allow a transition from stand-off bombs to their near-endless supply of glide/gravity bombs. On the edges of Iranian territory it can be possible, but doing so any further inside causes exponential risk to the bombers. Notably, Reaper drones can carry JDAMs, hence why they continue to be used so much despite how often they’re getting shot down.

  4. Not enough naval power to reopen Hormuz. Otherwise, the US could hypothetically wait out Iran and exert economic and covert pressure to encourage political collapse; with Hormuz in Iran’s hands, the US’s delaying tactics favor Iran instead.

  5. Not enough functioning and safe bases from which to launch counterattacks. Due to debasification (a word that has now spread far and wide after Amerikanet’s coining, lol), the US has been pushed back away from the Gulf. This dangerously overpopulates rear bases with planes and makes it so sortie rates are reduced due to how much distance you have to travel and how many refuelers you need per bomber.

No angry proclamations, media offensives, or tacky AI image posts can change this reality, and boy is Trump putting out a lot of that last one. This is why, after the two weeks of attacks we just saw, we see the US very reticent to try and escalate further, and Trump’s threat over last weekend to really start bombing Iran did not occur. This is being reflected in the US media, with several worried articles talking about how there just aren’t enough missiles to keep the conflict going much longer. One of the only options left is to use ground/special forces to do… something, though pretty much no matter what target he selects, it’s hard to imagine it breaking Iran, or doing much to end the conflict, or even being a successful operation past the point where you’ve landed troops somewhere. We saw the “pilot rescue” (uranium heist) operation fail and aborted before the forces could even step foot off the runway they landed on.

It is into this environment that Ansarallah has suddenly declared a blockade of Saudi Arabia - an architect of the blockade of Yemen and one of the major causes of the country’s internal divisions between Ansarallah and comprador groups - and is turning their ships around at the entrance to the Red Sea, thereby cutting off a good chunk of the Saudi’s remaining oil exports. Ansarallah has proven they were not interested in some cautious, gradual climb up the escalation ladder; when the Saudis hit a couple Yemeni port facilities, they went ahead and hit Jazan and Yanbu so hard that the fires were still raging a day or two after the initial strikes. The US is apparently asking for the MoU back, and this time with Ansarallah also placated, but it appears Iran is much less interested in the MoU now after it was thoroughly violated by the US the first time - and if it does return to it, it might have much more hardline demands.


Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • Whether true or not I don’t know but something is developing.

    I can can understand not noticing someone else posted this but how many times do you need to get fooled before you go to the source and not trust the professional liars?

    Hamas full statement on disarmament:

    ‘Hamas and the Palestinian factions have dealt responsibly and positively with the negotiation process and the mediators’ proposals to complete the implementation of the second phase of the ceasefire agreement.

    This was done with a national consensus among the Palestinian factions, reflecting a spirit of partnership and responsibility, stemming from our commitment to protecting our people, meeting their humanitarian needs, and safeguarding their national rights.

    The occupation’s commitment to halting the killing and ending its aggression is the fundamental prerequisite and the first step towards its implementation. This includes establishing a framework and timetable for what has been agreed upon. It is emphasized that the implementation of the second phase of the agreement is contingent upon the occupation’s commitment to implementing all the provisions of the first phase.

    The inclusion of the issue of heavy weapons within the framework of the agreement is linked to and conditional upon a complete cessation of all forms of aggression, withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, achieving recovery, the entry of the Administrative Committee, the deployment of international protection forces, the disbanding of armed gangs and militias formed by the occupation, reconstruction, guaranteeing the right to self-determination, the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, and the protection of citizens’ rights.

    Hamas and the Palestinian factions extend their greetings and appreciation to our steadfast people in the Gaza Strip, and affirm their commitment to continuing to work together on this path for the sake of our people and to safeguard their rights.‘

    • Middle East Spectator
    • Awoo [she/her]@hexbear.net
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      29 days ago

      I can can understand not noticing someone else posted this but how many times do you need to get fooled before you go to the source and not trust the professional liars?

      Who said I believe them? I am posting news, in the news mega, and explicitly said it may not be true? But you’re attacking me for posting? Fuck off.

      The western media are reporting it. It’s news. It’s still news if the western media are building a new lie.

      Attacking people for posting here is the fastest fucking way to get people to stop participating in the community at all. This shit just harms the site. Everyone already understands that something written from one side or the other must be viewed through a certain lens.

      As for not noticing the other, it’s literally 100+ comments below. I’m not reading every single comment every single time I come through here and neither are most people. Demanding that is just another fucking ridiculous thing that will turn people away and reduce posters here in an already extremely niche community.

      What’s wild to me is that whenever I get this shit from someone it’s always a new account being aggressive as fuck to me.

      • manuallybreathing@lemmy.ml
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        29 days ago

        Attacking people for posting here is the fastest fucking way to get people to stop participating in the community at all. This shit just harms the site. Everyone already understands that something written from one side or the other must be viewed through a certain lens.

        I agree with you and more people could stand to be reminded, but I also think along with this you could have responded with nah i read it dw bb.

        I’ve regularly noticed people here not reading past a headline, and making pretty daft assumptions based on them.

        Comrades, when things are feeling tense on Hexbear.net, have a snack do a little exercise. 10 pushups can feel as satisfying as a cigarette. Not exactly related to hexbear, otherthings frustrate me a lot more, but it’s how I got fit.

        • Awoo [she/her]@hexbear.net
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          28 days ago

          I’m already upset about reducing my activity because I’m at risk of arrest in the UK if I say the wrong thing now. So when the literal first response i get after not participating for a while is someone being a fucking asshole it touches a bigger nerve than usual. I’m genuinely upset about. It causes a deep seated “oh ok, guess i’ll just go somewhere else then” feeling.

          Anyway I also really dislike the crowd that’s like “don’t post western media, they’re enemy media” like we’re participating soldiers in the war. We know it’s often lies or framed certain ways. It doesn’t matter. Knowing what they’re trying to push is kind of actually important if we want to stay in touch with what the average person is being exposed to anyway.

          • Damarcusart [he/him, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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            28 days ago

            Yeah, when talking to people and actually organising in real life, we need to know the kinds of bullshit filling the heads of the average person. It doesn’t matter if we have a correct understanding of a situation if we can’t convince anyone else of that understanding because they have been pumped so full of lies that their view has no basis in reality. We need to walk them to the right answer, not just scoff at them for listening to the “mainstream media”

    • edge [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      29 days ago

      conditional upon… the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, and the protection of citizens’ rights.

      Which means they won’t disarm until the entity is gone, because it’s definitely not going to let those happen.

    • girl_thing [she/her, any]@hexbear.net
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      PIJ issued a statement contradicting the claim that the decision was unanimous and they have reservations. Could just be Ikhwani stuff on Hamas’s part but we’ll see.

      While Hamas officials said progress had been made, Palestinian factions stressed that the agreement’s implementation must include clear guarantees and obligations from “Israel”.

      Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) political bureau member Ali Abu Shaheen told Al Mayadeen that the movement is committed to an agreement that serves Palestinian interests and preserves the gains achieved through resistance.

      However, Abu Shaheen said the movement has reservations over the current formulation of the agreement, stating that reports of an agreement between the factions and Israel are “not accurate” in its current form.

      He added that “Israel” had not complied with the provisions of the first phase and questioned its move toward the second phase without fulfilling previous commitments.

      “The movement confirms that every step taken by the resistance must have a corresponding commitment from the occupation in Gaza,” Abu Shaheen said.

      He also raised concerns over the weapons-related clause, saying that the current text does not clearly establish obligations requiring “Israel” to fully implement the agreement.