My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.
preamble
As many predicted quite early on in this conflict, the US simply does not have the stockpiles nor production lines to maintain the firing rates we saw in March and April. There’s at least five strictly military problems:
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Not enough interceptors to shoot down Iranian missiles, and many missiles get through regardless. This includes a dearth of interceptors in the Zionist entity proper.
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Not enough stand-off munitions to cause a real breakdown of Iran’s military and society. There’s enough left in the submarines and in whatever stockpiles they have mustered to give one last very serious barrage before they’re just completely out (unless they start taking all their missiles out of the Pacific and Europe), but even if this is done, this shock and awe failed the first time around, and the missile cities have proven impregnable to Western military technology.
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Not enough penetration of Iranian airspace to allow a transition from stand-off bombs to their near-endless supply of glide/gravity bombs. On the edges of Iranian territory it can be possible, but doing so any further inside causes exponential risk to the bombers. Notably, Reaper drones can carry JDAMs, hence why they continue to be used so much despite how often they’re getting shot down.
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Not enough naval power to reopen Hormuz. Otherwise, the US could hypothetically wait out Iran and exert economic and covert pressure to encourage political collapse; with Hormuz in Iran’s hands, the US’s delaying tactics favor Iran instead.
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Not enough functioning and safe bases from which to launch counterattacks. Due to debasification (a word that has now spread far and wide after Amerikanet’s coining, lol), the US has been pushed back away from the Gulf. This dangerously overpopulates rear bases with planes and makes it so sortie rates are reduced due to how much distance you have to travel and how many refuelers you need per bomber.
No angry proclamations, media offensives, or tacky AI image posts can change this reality, and boy is Trump putting out a lot of that last one. This is why, after the two weeks of attacks we just saw, we see the US very reticent to try and escalate further, and Trump’s threat over last weekend to really start bombing Iran did not occur. This is being reflected in the US media, with several worried articles talking about how there just aren’t enough missiles to keep the conflict going much longer. One of the only options left is to use ground/special forces to do… something, though pretty much no matter what target he selects, it’s hard to imagine it breaking Iran, or doing much to end the conflict, or even being a successful operation past the point where you’ve landed troops somewhere. We saw the “pilot rescue” (uranium heist) operation fail and aborted before the forces could even step foot off the runway they landed on.
It is into this environment that Ansarallah has suddenly declared a blockade of Saudi Arabia - an architect of the blockade of Yemen and one of the major causes of the country’s internal divisions between Ansarallah and comprador groups - and is turning their ships around at the entrance to the Red Sea, thereby cutting off a good chunk of the Saudi’s remaining oil exports. Ansarallah has proven they were not interested in some cautious, gradual climb up the escalation ladder; when the Saudis hit a couple Yemeni port facilities, they went ahead and hit Jazan and Yanbu so hard that the fires were still raging a day or two after the initial strikes. The US is apparently asking for the MoU back, and this time with Ansarallah also placated, but it appears Iran is much less interested in the MoU now after it was thoroughly violated by the US the first time - and if it does return to it, it might have much more hardline demands.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
I will get pushback for saying this, but “decolonialism” and “land back” are dead phrases to me after Zionist appropriation. It might have been useful in certain contexts where European nations were using imperial colonies in Africa, etc to fuel their destructive wars, but I haven’t seen a use for these calls in the left since. They dont push movements forward, the phrases are essentially just cries of “that historical wasn’t fair, and somebody is going to pay for it!” Such cries are the breakfast, lunch, and dinner of Zionists and so of course they appropriate.
Leftists who use these phrases without first taking power tend to appeal to international law, which is run by the US anyways. But lord knows rad libs will just find another phrase for future Zios to appropriate instead of learn.
Sad how the right constantly finds ways to appropriate leftist terms in the worst ways possible.
It’s easier to cynically copy a virtue than to seriously embody one. That’s why the right came up with “Virtue Signal” as an insult. Seeing cool people like Greta Thuneburg actually walk the walk reminds them of how morally empty they really are.
The antidote to appropriation, therefore, is to seriously embody what it is you mean, or at least express exactly what you mean.
I dont see anybody appropriating this
(and if they did in the future, lol balkanized Amerika mission accomplished)
Removed by mod
And here’s where I am forced to depart from my religious “comrades.”
As an anti-zionist Jew, the flagrant willingness to repeat and glorify actual, textual anti-Semitism and center religion instead of class struggle is both grotesque and misguided.
This user has shown anti-queer sentiments before, and now I’m catching anti-Semitism in the thread too. I give critical support to these movements, but I expect this space to be one of materialist analysis and MARXIST solidarity. I’m frankly tired of the inability of some to conceive of critical support and who normalize hateful rhetoric.
How do you feel about “A curse upon the christians” said by people oppressed by christian supremacism, given the history of christian genocide in Turkey (Armenian, devshirme)?
If someone posts a fairly common saying like “there is no hate like christian love”, “Christianity doesnt get enough hate for it’s role in x” or “Pictured: most compassionate christians” under a post detailing hate crimes by christians, I’m not gonna go “That’s not real christianity”. I should be permabanned if I ever do something like that.
Hear how Ansarallah responds to a question like this themselves https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9k3hAkr1FNc&t=277s Thanks to Loveyourself for linking me it and opening my eyes.
I appreciate a thoughtful and educating exchange. I maintain my commitments that Jews= /=Zionists, and that evocation of religiously based hatred is a bad thing.
That it is happening may be sensible, that does not require our uncritical support. Words are not void of the context they are used in or the history that precedes them–coconut trees and all that. There is a meaningful disanalogy between Christianity and Jews simply based on the power differential given numbers, Capital, and so on. What I actively do is accuse the Jews in Israel of allowing themselves to be “Kapos” for the kind of white supremacy and genocide the West wants to enact upon the global south.That’s just about the most vicious word any jew can say to another. It’s not equivalent of the N word because it lacks the historical context of oppression and dehumanization the N word has, but it’s bad enough that I’d bristle to hear any non-jew say it. Kapos of course were the death camp inmates given special status and privilege for being willing to brutalize other Jews by the Germans.
As grotesque as Kapos malice may have been, it was an artificially permitted phenomenon by greater powers pitting oppressed people against each other. The most culpable were of course the Germans. In our current situation, that would be European Capital, the British specifically as the colonial power at the time of “hand of”, and substantially more the Americans in the modern era than any other. Our language should help us clarify and understand and coordinate the world better, though, not conflate when unnecessary. I think that’s exactly what The Sarkha does as it moves from a cry of pain to a political slogan outside of that original context. It would be easy and far more accurate to say “Curse upon Zionism” or whatever, than to broad brush against all Jews. It doesn’t matter what the intent of the original utterance was when it starts getting repeated outside of that context. It gets flattened and weaponized by ignorance and misapplied. More precise language is better, and we have more precise language available to us.
Let me turn your thought experiment around a bit. Was the islamaphobia and hatred expressed by victims of ‘terrorism’ warranted after 9/11? What about queer folks who continue to be put to death in many Islamic countries? Would it matter that an arguably innocent person had been killed and their loved ones were mourning? Would that entitle their loved ones to begin repeating and evoking phrases like “Damn the Muslims?” I would hope you’d say “of course not, that would viciously flatten an entire non-homogeneous people and propagate an ignorance that will harm many more innocents in the long run.” This is of course it’s own imprecise analogy because Islamaphobia has its own history and context in the world, just like anti-Semitism does. But my point stands. More precise language is better, and the cries of the oppressed are not above criticism when they transcend the utterance of the directly hurt and become a rallying cry for a larger political project.
Ansar Allah is perhaps entitled to evoke that phrase given their direct experience with Zionist violence, I’m not out here to tone police the victims of genocide expressing their pain, but that doesn’t make the phrase “incorruptible” or worthy of uptake in anyone else’s mouths. It’s obviously corruptible given how many words have to be spent to justify and contextualize it against misuse, and all this essay writing won’t happen every time it’s repeated and passed along. I’d make an argument for secular and class based organizing above any kind of religiously centered resistance, and I’d expect that to be the norm we enforce in a space of leftist solidarity like Hexbear. The user I object to has consistently seemed to reject and shame others and refuse to build solidarity in this space. This was yet another example of that as far as I’m concerned. I think they’re a zealot first, and a 'leftist" when it happens to align. A lot can be learned from people connected to and informed by different cultural traditions, so I’m not saying they need to be thrown out for thought crimes. But we don’t have to stomach the bad with the good. Their engagement and education–much like anyone else’s–needs to align with the larger project of solidarity and class-first analysis that leftism is defined by. The willingness to make that second or invisible behind religious evocations is not something to be uncritically swallowed.
Edit: but of course I’m just a “Zionist” as far as the user is concerned, and now they’re busy posting it as aggressively as they can in comms where they can spread the conflation of Jews and Zionism more freely. So grateful to my “comrades” for actively working to promote the conflation I’ve spent the last 6 years trying to unwind. What a fucking joke of a “comrade”
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
Modded lol
The intelligent and informed critique I’d be happy to offer you’ve muted because I was too queer for you on some other occasion. If you can’t talk to people who don’t share you religion or sexuality, then the only tool we have to check your comfort with reactionary ideology is through mods. This space isn’t a cheerleading section for reactionary movements. Womp womp. We can respect, analyze, and learn from contemporary anti-imperialist movements without signing on to their reactionary slogans or brain worms.
Someone who wasn’t too queer or Jewish for this user can feel free to have the conversation. I’m just adding context for anyone reading this and wondering what’s going on. Turns out “Curse upon the Jews” is not an unquestionably based slogan, as they implied in their original comment.
I have only seen it when talking about North American Indigenous people.
Landback and decolonization is often discarded because a big part of the left has imperialist and settler chauvinism. I do think, reformist appeal to institutions and intl law and NGOization of praxis is a roadblock. Imperialism can appropriate many social causes when devoid of a revolutionary and class character, from colonialism, racism, queer liberation. Like, even national liberation can be used as a foil for imperialist backed separatism.
is it a malvinas situation where both countries have a pretty shitty claim to the territory?
No. Also the Malvinas are not such a situation either. In both cases it is clear that the European country has no business owning that territory. That being said, it is currently not a priority to rectify either problem given that both Argentina and Morocco are Zionist-captured. If in doubt always take the opposite position of whatever position US-Israel take.
i think i agree with this
This is what Spain gets for selling out the Polisario Front.
Funny it’s a few days after Morocco renamed the Tiznit-Dakhla road to “President Donald J. Trump Highway”. See https://lematin.ma/nation/la-route-tiznit-dakhla-prend-le-nom-de-president-donald-j-trump-highway/358074 (in french)
Absolutely