If they force the Orthodox to join the army, I’m guessing their political alliance falls that’s holding the government together? Because I’m surprised they don’t just force them to join, it must be out of necessity.

50% of Haredi (ultra-orthodox) men don’t work. No hate if you are unable to work because of disability, but just… Willingly doing nothing but study the Torah as your government does a genocide is unsustainable.

IDF is primarily an aerial bombardment force. These conscripts are not trained to combat insurgents who can shoot back without artillery and aerial support. The IDF will likely just recycle its reserves or recall those who recently left/discharged.

I’ve seen a lot of these headlines since Oct 7th and it feels like the “any moment the PRC will collapse” graphics you find collages of on Youtube.

Thins look favorable for Iran at the moment but the US and Israel’s solution is to commit war crimes and destroy civilian infrastructure to terrorize their opponents into capitulation, even if Iran holds the strait of Hormuz for the entire conflict. US-Israel have a path dependence, a death drive, that Iran does not. They forsee their own defeat but believe prolonging it is as good - because it might as well be - as overcoming it.

The thing to learn, and demonstrated since October 7th, is that to the US and its allies nothing is taboo anymore. Genocide is hangwringed behind the rationale of “did they deserve it” or “the body count isn’t high enough for me to care”.

Mass death is the chief export and mechanism of control, to dominate and exploit the planet and its peoples, primarily used by the US and its allies. It is so common, so ubiquitous, that genocide is the language of these regimes that calling it as such has desenitized ordinary people into thinking its a cry for wolf.

It’s hard to make sense of what is happening now, much less the future, that it is no wonder that people like Professor Jiang are popular now.