Image is of protestors burning down the Singha Durbar, the seat of Nepal’s government offices in Kathmandu.

For more on the situation in Nepal, I recommend @MelianPretext@lemmygrad.ml’s comment here.


Following a “anti-corruption” protest movement spurred by a social media ban (but with much deeper roots) in which dozens of protestors were killed by state forces, the government of KP Oli has been ousted, and an interim leader is currently in power as the country prepares for elections. Notably, events have been characterized as “Gen Z protests”, and this leader was decided (at least partially) by a Discord vote. When a non-western government rapidly falls, it’s wise to at least glance in the direction of the United States, and there are almost certainly elements of color revolution here. But, as always, it’s more complicated than simple regime change - Nepal is a deeply troubled economy even as developing countries go.

Vijay Prashad has offered his five theses as to why Nepal’s government fell that goes beyond non-specific terms like “corruption” or “color revolution”:

  1. Despite winning 75% of the seats in parliament in 2017, the various communist parties have failed to unify towards forming a common agenda and solving the problems of the people. When the nominally united communist party split in 2021, infighting and opportunism eventually brought on the rightist politicians we see today.

  2. The Nepalese economy is not successful. Disasters are slow to be ameliorated, education and healthcare is underfunded, and poverty is fairly rampant. There have been significant developments made by the communist parties, such as electrification programs and some poverty reduction, but it has been insufficient.

  3. The petty bourgeois usually come from oppressed Hindu castes, and are frustrated by the domination of upper castes, and so are inspired by India’s BJP. They essentially want a return to monarchy, under the guise of anti-corruption, and despite their relatively small numbers, are powerfully organized.

  4. Of the countries that aren’t tiny islands, Nepal has the highest per capita rate of work migration, due to insufficient employment in Nepal. The jobs that Nepalese citizens receive overseas range from unpleasant to unbearable in both labour and wages, and this has generated rightful suspicion that the government cares more about foreign direct investors than their own citizens overseas.

  5. The government of KP Oli was close to the United States, and India’s Modi has promoted the BJP in Nepal. Both countries have sought to exert influence over Nepal, though Prashad speculates that, if there is indeed a foreign mastermind at work, India is more likely to be the culprit behind these recent protests, in a gambit to use the chaos to promote/install a far right monarchist government.

I agree with Prashad that it seems unlikely that mere electoral changes will result in anything terribly productive, though whatever government emerges will inevitably hoist the banner of anti-corruption to try and legitimize themselves. We have seen the same breakdown of electoralism as a meaningful pathway to solve national problems all across the world, from the superpowers to the poorest states. Until a rupture occurs, greater surveillance, policing, and repression seems guaranteed.


Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    https://archive.ph/1NVX4

    Pentagon Moves To Replace Weapons It Used In Operation Midnight Hammer

    U.S. military aircraft employed GBU-39/B Small Diameter Bombs (SDB) and laser-guided 70mm Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System II (APKWS II) rockets around the operation to strike Iranian nuclear facilities earlier this year, according to Pentagon budget documents. It does seem somewhat unlikely that APKWS IIs were used directly in the strike mission, which we will address directly. Compared to what we’ve learned about the B-2 stealth bombers that dropped GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bunker-buster bombs during Operation Midnight Hammer, much is still unknown about the contributions of other U.S. forces to the mission and in the lead-up to it.

    more

    The Pentagon has previously said that 125 aircraft, including the B-2s, took part in Operation Midnight Hammer. President Donald Trump has also said that the force package included stealthy F-22 Raptor and F-35 fighters, as well as dozens of aerial refueling tankers. The B-2s dropped 12 MOPs in total on Iran’s deeply buried nuclear facility at Fordow and another two on an underground site at Natanz, according to U.S. officials. The Iranian nuclear facility at Isfahan was also subjected to a barrage of more than two dozen Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles fired from a single submarine, very likely the Ohio class guided missile submarine USS Georgia.

    “As the Operation Midnight Hammer strike package entered Iranian airspace, the U.S. employed several deception tactics, including decoys as the fourth and fifth generation aircraft pushed out in front of the strike package at high altitude and high speed, sweeping in front of the package for enemy fighters and surface to air missiles,” Air Force Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at a press briefing the morning after the operation, but did not elaborate. “As the strike package approached Fordow and Natanz, the U.S. protection package employed high-speed suppression weapons to ensure safe passage of the strike package with fighter assets employing preemptive suppressing fires against any potential Iranian surface-to-air threats.”

    The new disclosures that U.S. forces expended SDBs and laser-guided rockets, as well as the MOPs, in relation to Operation Midnight Hammer come from a Pentagon budget reprogramming document dated August 1, but which was only released recently. By law, the U.S. military has to seek approval from Congress to reallocate funding from one part of its budget to another.

    Overall, “this reprogramming action addresses funds for the replacement of defense articles expended in support of Israel through U.S. combat operations executed at the request of and in coordination with Israel and for the defense of lsraeli territory, personnel, or assets during attacks by Iran, and subsequent or anticipated attacks by Iran and its proxies,” the document notes. “Funds are available from division A of the Israel Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024, division A of Public Law 118-50, appropriated to the Department of Defense.” The reprogramming document specifically lays out the reallocation of $2.3 million, $3.3 million, and $123 million to help replace SDBs, laser-guided rockets, and MOPs employed in relation to the operation to strike Iran’s nuclear sites, respectively. No details are provided about the total number of any munitions expended (though we have the previous details about the number of MOPs dropped) or how many are expected to be purchased with the supplemental funds. Another $9.976 million is also required to pay for “temporary lodging expenses of personnel supporting Operation Midnight Hammer.” In addition, the document includes the shifting of $498.265 million to provide funds for the replacement of an unspecified number of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile interceptors fired in the defense of Israel, without any explicit mention of Midnight Hammer. The U.S. Army reportedly fired more than 150 THAAD interceptors to defend Israel during its 12-day war with Iran in June, raising significant questions about the depth of the remaining U.S. stockpile of those missiles. You can read more about the THAAD expenditures in detail in TWZ‘s past reporting here.

    If the $123 million figure in the reprogramming action reflects the full cost to replace the 14 MOPs dropped on Iran, this would average out to nearly $8.8 million per bomb. However, ancillary costs could also be included in that total. The U.S. government does not appear to have ever provided an official unit cost for the GBU-57/B, with past reports offering $3.5 million and $15 million price points, but without clear sourcing. The dollar figures for the SDBs and APKWS II rockets raise some immediate questions about the full scope of what might be considered to be “during Operation Midnight Hammer.” The Air Force has pegged the unit cost of a typical GBU-39/B at $40,000 in the past, and more recent budget documents put it at between $70,000 and $80,000. If the $2.3 million figure reflects the total cost of SDBs expended just on June 21-22, this would mean roughly between 30 and 60 SDBs were dropped in one night. Similarly, $3.3 million averages out to around 132 APKWS II rockets based on available cost data. It is possible in this case that “during Operation Midnight Hammer” also includes tangential operational activities. Midnight Hammer came at the tail-end of the Iran-Israel war, during which U.S. forces were heavily engaged in defending the latter’s territory from incoming threats, as underscored by the THAAD interceptor section in the repogramming document.

    The use of GBU-39/B would fit with Caine’s previous disclosure that aircraft in the Midnight Hammer strike package had conducted pre-emptive strikes on Iranian air defense assets to help clear the way. With its standoff range and precision, the SDB is well-suited to the suppression/destruction of enemy air defense (SEAD/DEAD) mission set, and F-22s and F-35s can also carry them internally while flying in their most stealthy configurations, further reducing their vulnerability. SDBs could have been employed by various other platforms, and against other ground targets, as well. As noted, there are more questions about how the APKWS II rockets could have factored into Operation Midnight Hammer, especially given that the repogramming action says air-to-air optimized Fixed Wing, Air Launched, Counter-Unmanned Aircraft Systems Ordnance (FALCO) versions were expended. … FALCO rockets were first employed in combat in the air-to-air role last year in the Middle East, at least against drones, but the air-to-air APKWS II capability was also developed as a means of downing subsonic cruise missiles. Iran certainly has an extensive arsenal of drones and cruise missiles, but it is not clear why the Midnight Hammer strike package would have been engaging them as it punched its way to Fordow and Natanz. FALCO-configured APKWS IIs could have been employed against ground targets, but this also seems less likely to have been the case. Any use of laser-guided rockets would have required a non-stealthy launch platform, as well. Overall, it seems much more likely that the rockets were expended in the context of the broader defense of Israel and U.S. assets in the region during Iran’s drone and missile barrages.

    The full scale and scope of munitions and other capabilities employed during Operation Midnight Hammer is still unknown. Caine’s past comments about decoys and “high-speed suppression weapons” have also raised the possibility that variants of the ADM-160 Miniature Air-Launched Decoy (MALD) and members of the AGM-88 High-speed Anti-Radiation Missile (HARM) family were employed, but this remains unconfirmed. The mention of decoys could also be a reference to the additional B-2 bombers sent flying out into the Pacific as part of an elaborate deception effort in support of the operation. In the immediate wake of the Operation Midnight Hammer, TWZ highlighted the overall enormity of the resources required for its successful execution, writing: “It’s also worth discussing what went into making this attack possible. We have been writing about the B-2 and its MOP capability constantly for many years. It has been a critical program that has needed constant enhancement. Mission planners, maintainers, ordnancemen, aircrews, engineers and everyone else in between have been preparing for this exact mission for many years. Many years of technological development went into the hardware to achieve it. We have seen large-scale exercises that certainly looked like rehearsals for yesterday’s mission, too. And it’s not just B-2 and MOP, but the package of aircraft (likely F-22s, F-35s, EA-18Gs, tankers, and possibly one or two we don’t even know about yet), vessels, satellite assets, and the supporting command and control architecture that all played a part.” “So, seeing it all come together, with apparently perfect timing and coordination, from space to down below the waves, is something to behold.”

    Though questions remain, the recently released budget reprogramming document does offer additional insights into the full breadth of Operation Midnight Hammer.

    • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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      APKWS is for downing one way attack drones and possibly cruise missiles. APKWS numbers are already kind of known from pictures of the F-15Es stationed in Jordan that likely shot down Iranian one way attack drones. 153 APKWS rockets were fired by 9 F-15Es, according to kill markings. Which would work out to around $21.6K per rocket, according to this document. What’s not mentioned in the document is the expenditure of 42 JASSM cruise missiles against (most likely) Yemen and/or Iran, or what kind of JASSM was used .

      I did a post on the pictures of the kill markings

      The document also references SDB II, but the GBU-39 is SDB I, not SDB II. SDB II is called the GBU-53.

      • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        The document also references SDB II, but the GBU-39 is SDB I, not SDB II. SDB II is called the GBU-53

        boy, I really hope somebody got fired for that blunder

        I guess even the US government can’t keep track of all their acronyms and designations. Or maybe this is just some kind of clerical thing, where the “Budget Activity” is just called “Small Diameter Bomb II”, even if it includes procurement of the original SDB I, for reasons that only bureaucrats can comprehend.

        What’s not mentioned in the document is the expenditure of 42 JASSM cruise missiles against (most likely) Yemen and/or Iran, or what kind of JASSM was used .

        I assume operations against Yemen wouldn’t be counted here, just ones against Iran. And potentially the JASSM is missing since they haven’t decided to replace those numbers, at least for now (or it’s a separate “budget reprogramming”)