Thanks for responding - I’ve likely been at a similar level of exhaustion recently. Please also forgive my sloppy response to you the other day and more so this one, where I am pretty ill currently. Take all the time you want to read/respond at your leisure if you desire/if we chat in the future. I’d be happy to see a response in my inbox even 6 months down the line, but honestly, I’m just tickled that anybody responds to me at all after the years of censoring and burying I have experienced over on reddit and other websites. It’s been really cool here on the fediverse like that for me and I’ve grown a lot.

You’re absolutely right that fossil fuels are magical. It seems impossible to imagine a world that is even a little bit as advanced as it is now without their heavy use, but we’ve absolutely grown too accustomed.

It’s definitely not for a lack of reporting that the knowledge of the effects of climate change shouldn’t be more widespread. I’d like to say that plenty of discourse has absolutely been had on this subject, but mostly in spaces where the conclusions people come to are downright grim and disabling, or firmly rooted in reforming the current system and telling individuals that they need to personally change, instead of shifting focus to the changes we can be making societally. On the flip side (where people are ignorant), average people are generally convinced that everything is fine. The right specifically think it’s just the woke liberals trying to waste money on environmental programs led by fake science, likely to make themselves rich. With the making themselves rich part likely being a semi-valid point, and there broadly being a reproducibility crisis in some areas of science being fair to feel and point out as well.

Politically speaking, I predict a failure of the right - at least here in America. The Democrats are essentially in a state of failure already. I can’t speak to Europe at all, but I would really hope that Europe gets its shit together with all that’s going on. Predicting the fall of MAGA seems delusional even to me at times, but I have to imagine that the house of cards just needs a little wind. Every single thing that Trump/the administration does, it reveals a playbook for anyone curious enough to ask why. I think the reasons to ask that simple question will increase for most people as this continues. And I think ultimately, my optimism comes down to foreseeing the failure/rejection of the USD and a major failure of our tech/AI companies (the latter of which is also starting to become apparent for others).

Regardless of my predictions of the longevity of MAGA and a failure of the USD - are the big corporations, the rich, and those aware of the reality of our systems prepared to devolve into a reality even worse than Hunger Games? That question circles around in my head, and I think those with the most power to shape or influence society in the present order would be unable to manifest a world even that good for themselves. In their dreams, maybe. I think it would be a lot more boring and undesirable for them, best case scenario.

I’m not predicting a world where anything goes smoothly - where reform happens through the current systems or new systems that even remotely mirror the old. I think it’s going to be very awkward and messy, at times, as the reality sinks in. I see and feel a whole lot of emotion building up in people, more than I ever have, and I believe the release of this emotion will be palpable.

Regardless of my predictions and hope for Europe to return to sanity, I guess I just want to believe in a world where people aren’t so helpless and obedient to the current greedy and shortsighted world order.

If alternative energy sources became more widespread and cheap for regular people to purchase and install, whether through a breakthrough or other miracle that defies policy, it’s very likely indicative at that point that our trajectory would be greatly improved. Here in the US, there is a lot of pressure put on our current grid, and I could see this all happening in reaction to high energy costs, stagnating wages, mass layoffs, etc. Obviously household energy use being switched over to partially decentralized green energy e.g. cheap, more efficient solar panels (with sodium-ion batteries possibly) is only one piece of the puzzle to solve.

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I tried to speak to your questions in long-form, but here are quick, direct responses:

Should action be deferred until there’s a perfect consensus

Nope, but it would help to see our options laid out for more people to judge what have the most merit. More eyes are needed, but really people need to be more involved in shaping their lives and communities – instead of relying on external authorities.

or at what point do you envision that enough people have come to that realization?

I feel the future will always be more chaotic in practice than anybody can predict. I think focus will be very narrow until the reality widely sinks in for average people living their lives - until people are forced to adapt, likely in reaction to imminent shortages or projected shortages.

Do you consider people embracing ideas like this to be likely to happen, considering real world conditions?

If the status quo broadly continues, even on life support, it seems very unlikely.