On Saturday, Putin gave an angry national address, calling Prigozhin’s rebellion treasonous and “a stab in the back of our country and our people.” But just a few hours later, he negotiated the settlement with Prigozhin. Putin’s actions showed the Russian people and the rest of the world that when confronted by a powerful adversary, he will blink. That is certainly the lesson now being absorbed by leaders in Ukraine and at NATO.
Putin’s only play to remain in power may be to have Prigozhin murdered once he settles into exile in Belarus. Prigozhin, meanwhile, may be condemned to await his assassin, even as he wonders what might have been.
He didn’t even do that, he was calling all his friends (Tokayev, Erdogan etc) to do it for him, but only Lukashenko agreed, because he owes Putin for staying in power. Today Lukashenko said that “if Russia falls, we will all die under its ruins”, which makes it even more clear that this is a desperate alliance of two very weak rulers.