i think the concern is that trump won’t OK a bail out for the banks that underwrite the loan to argentina or make them whole if the loans fail, because the administration has repeatedly demonstrated they will completely go back on their word and leave other entities holding the bag, not to mention, the administration will exercise extralegal authority over institutions to extract concessions.

its one of the reasons there are articles about concern over trump influencing the Federal Reserve. the federal reserve was meant to be the committee of large capital formations, running the central bank of state, independent of any single actor’s political project or influence.

the trump has muddled perceptions enough to make any individual large capital formation squeamish about taking on such a risk, especially while whispers of bubbles loom. like maybe trump would let some big bank take the hit, because he thinks it will score him political points… or maybe he wants to fuck some guy on the board over from some past slight. the point being, maybe he decides at the last minute to block the money printer from saving a bank.

there are no assurances from this administration, so why take the risk on their behalf? i mean, investing in argentina’s economy under Milei is probably a shit deal and is pretty obviously going to continue being a toxic asset, revolution or no.